Crawley Town 0-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees AFC Wimbledon travel to Broadfield Stadium to take on Crawley Town. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Crawley Town have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Broadfield Stadium, Crawley Town have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Crawley Town are significantly better at Broadfield Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. AFC Wimbledon have played only a handful of League Two games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Crawley Town 0.80 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Crawley Town trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 60% versus AFC Wimbledon 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | AFC Wimbledon 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.77 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.940 / defence 1.212 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.891 / defence 1.397. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.976. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.397 — this is suppressing Crawley Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Crawley Town games / 4 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 22%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 1.85 | Draw 4.35 | AFC Wimbledon 4.55. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Crawley Town 40% | AFC Wimbledon 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 54% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Crawley Town 1.77 / AFC Wimbledon 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.940 / def 1.212 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.891 / def 1.397 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.05
AFC Wimbledon xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 54% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 22% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.94x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AFC Wimbledon's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
54%
1.84
23%
4.28
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.83
1.05
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
17%
5.90
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.1 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.05 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 50 games, going 17W 11D 22L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Crawley Town, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AFC Wimbledon sit at 0.84 PPG from 50 outings (7W 21D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of AFC Wimbledon — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 9W 6D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Wimbledon have taken 0.72 points per game from 25 outings (4W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.10 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Early Season
AFC Wimbledon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 7W 21D 22L in their last 50 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.32 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Crawley Town's record when hosting AFC Wimbledon specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
0
Draws
2
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon?
From 4 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, AFC Wimbledon have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2024, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Crawley Town.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, AFC Wimbledon 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Crawley Town) and 56% (AFC Wimbledon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 28% of games; AFC Wimbledon in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play AFC Wimbledon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Crawley Town's games and 52% of AFC Wimbledon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Crawley Town's matches and 56% of AFC Wimbledon's.
Do Crawley Town and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AFC Wimbledon cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon beat Crawley Town 0-2 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.77 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.05 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.8 short of their projected output. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.94 / defence 1.21 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.89 / defence 1.40, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 54% | Draw 23% | AFC Wimbledon 22%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a AFC Wimbledon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, AFC Wimbledon 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.84. Form was overturned, with AFC Wimbledon winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.