Colchester 1-3 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sutton Utd at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Colchester vs Sutton Utd encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
JobServe Community Stadium plays host to Colchester versus Sutton Utd in League Two, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Colchester have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Colchester at JobServe Community Stadium this season: 1W 2D 3L from 6 home games — 0.83 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Sutton Utd (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd away from home this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 away games — 1.14 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.14 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sutton Utd are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Colchester half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Sutton Utd half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 38% versus Sutton Utd 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Colchester 23% | Sutton Utd 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 0.74 xG and Sutton Utd 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.620 / defence 1.073 | Sutton Utd attack 0.857 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.028 / away 1.164. Colchester's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 Colchester games / 13 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 22% | Draw 38% | Sutton Utd 40%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Sutton Utd 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sutton Utd are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sutton Utd if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Colchester 33% | Sutton Utd 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 22% | Draw 38% | Sutton Utd 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 37% | xG Colchester 0.74 / Sutton Utd 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.620 / def 1.073 | Sutton Utd attack 0.857 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.028 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Sutton Utd (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sutton Utd xG
37%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Sutton Utd kick off?
Colchester vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Sutton Utd?
Colchester 1 - 3 Sutton Utd.
Where is Colchester vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Sutton Utd part of?
Colchester vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 22% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 40% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Sutton Utd the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Colchester and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Colchester and Sutton Utd in?
Colchester (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Colchester's attack rating (0.62) and Sutton Utd's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.86x) against Colchester's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
22%
4.55
38%
2.62
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Colchester xG
Total xG
1.81
1.07
Sutton Utd xG
4.55
22%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
8%
13.26
19%
5.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 17.5 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Colchester and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Colchester and 1.07 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Colchester's recent record stands at 3W 5D 5L from 13 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 5L across 13 games — 1.54 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sutton Utd by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Colchester heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Colchester have managed 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Colchester are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.54 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Sutton Utd in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 3W 5D 5L in their last 13 games (1.08 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 6W 2D 5L in their last 13 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 0.83 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Colchester or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Colchester won 4-1 on 22 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Colchester have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Colchester
2
Draws
3
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Sutton Utd?
From 6 meetings on record, Colchester have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Sutton Utd 1-1 Colchester.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Colchester see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sutton Utd see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Colchester) and 33% (Sutton Utd) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Colchester and 17% for Sutton Utd.
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd in 50%; Colchester have failed to score in 50% of games; Sutton Utd in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Colchester's recent matches and 33% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Colchester vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Colchester's recent games and 17% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Sutton Utd cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Colchester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Colchester 1-3 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 0.74 xG and Sutton Utd 1.07 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sutton Utd outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.62 / defence 1.07 against Sutton Utd attack 0.86 / defence 1.16, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 22% | Draw 38% | Sutton Utd 40%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 23%, Sutton Utd 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Colchester (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.