Carlisle 2-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carlisle at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carlisle vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carlisle host Stevenage at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 45. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 4W 1D 5L at Brunton Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Stevenage — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Stevenage's away record: 1W 5D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Carlisle at 1.30 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Carlisle have won 1, Stevenage 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with Carlisle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Stevenage trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 39% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 48% | Stevenage 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.01 xG and Stevenage 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.763 / defence 1.081 | Stevenage attack 0.701 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.015 / away 1.062. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.763 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Carlisle's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Carlisle games / 44 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 39% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Stevenage 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.80 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Carlisle as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carlisle offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 27% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 30% | Stevenage 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 39% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Carlisle 1.01 / Stevenage 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.763 / def 1.081 | Stevenage attack 0.701 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.015 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Carlisle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Stevenage xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Stevenage kick off?
Carlisle vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Carlisle 2 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Carlisle vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Stevenage part of?
Carlisle vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 39% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Carlisle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Carlisle and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Carlisle 1W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Carlisle and Stevenage in?
Carlisle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carlisle Win
39%
2.55
33%
3.05
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.81
0.80
Stevenage xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
18%
5.71
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 13.1 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.5 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.1%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.80 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Carlisle come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 11D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.00 PPG from 44 outings (10W 14D 20L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.14 PPG, Stevenage on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Carlisle's home form reads 7W 7D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (2W 8D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Carlisle are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.91 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 44 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 10W 14D 20L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Stevenage away?
Carlisle's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.27 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Carlisle and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Carlisle's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Carlisle
3
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 2, Stevenage have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 23 March 2024, when Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Stevenage?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Carlisle see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Carlisle 32% BTTS, Stevenage 36%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Carlisle and 41% for Stevenage.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 46% of games; Stevenage in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Carlisle's recent matches and 36% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Carlisle's recent games and 41% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Carlisle edge out Stevenage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Stevenage 2-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 45, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.01 xG and Stevenage 0.80 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.76 / defence 1.08 against Stevenage attack 0.70 / defence 1.30, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 39% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 28%, with Carlisle to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 48%, Stevenage 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.14 PPG, Stevenage 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.