Carlisle 0-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Cheltenham at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Cheltenham encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Carlisle welcome Cheltenham to Brunton Park in League Two (matchday 14). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Carlisle have gone 1W 2D 7L — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Carlisle's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cheltenham stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Cheltenham have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form points away from home here. Cheltenham's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Carlisle's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Carlisle's last 10 home games and Cheltenham's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Carlisle, 1 for Cheltenham and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Apr 2024, ended Carlisle 1–0 Cheltenham — a Carlisle win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Carlisle in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Cheltenham in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 54% versus Cheltenham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 49% | Cheltenham 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.37 xG and Cheltenham 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.849 / defence 1.346 | Cheltenham attack 0.944 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.262. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Carlisle's projected output up. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.346 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cheltenham's projected output up. Data: built from Carlisle's last 13 games and Cheltenham's last 13.

Result probabilities: Carlisle 33% | Draw 24% | Cheltenham 43%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.05 | Draw 4.13 | Cheltenham 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.37 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cheltenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carlisle's last 10 home games and Cheltenham's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carlisle 70% (last 10 home games) | Cheltenham 100% (last 10 away games).

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