Bradford 0-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bradford at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bradford vs Stockport County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bradford host Stockport County at University of Bradford Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Bradford — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bradford at University of Bradford Stadium this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stockport County stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stockport County, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stockport County have posted 0W 0D 5L from 5 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Bradford carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Stockport County in-play tendencies (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bradford 54% and Stockport County 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 64% | Stockport County 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.87 xG and Stockport County 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 1.130 / defence 0.869 | Stockport County attack 0.966 / defence 1.371. League average goals — home 1.209 / away 1.036. Stockport County bring a strong defensive rating of 1.371 — this is suppressing Bradford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Bradford games / 11 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 61% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 17%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Stockport County 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Bradford (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bradford are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Bradford 40% | Stockport County 100% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 61% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Bradford 1.87 / Stockport County 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 1.130 / def 0.869 | Stockport County attack 0.966 / def 1.371 | league avg home 1.209 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Bradford (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Stockport County xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stockport County kick off?
Bradford vs Stockport County kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Stockport County?
Bradford 0 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Bradford vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Stockport County part of?
Bradford vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 61% chance of winning, Stockport County a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Bradford and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stockport County?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bradford and Stockport County in?
Bradford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Stockport County (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bradford's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (1.37x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.87. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.53
17%
5.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Bradford xG
Total xG
2.74
0.87
Stockport County xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
5.91
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.51
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
38.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Bradford and 0.87 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stockport County?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 11 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.91 PPG on a 6W 3D 2L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stockport County's form line: 2W 3D 6L from 11 games, 0.82 PPG, last five W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Stockport County is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bradford are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Stockport County.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bradford have posted 2.20 PPG from 5 outings (3W 2D 0L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stockport County's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bradford are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.09 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stockport County in 73%.
Defensively: Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Stockport County
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 6W 3D 2L in their last 11 games (1.91 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Stockport County away?
Bradford's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 2.20 PPG; Stockport County away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Bradford or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bradford have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Stockport County in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bradford go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Bradford's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bradford
3
Draws
1
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stockport County?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 2, Stockport County have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2026, when Bradford 1-0 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stockport County?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bradford at 40%, Stockport County at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Bradford and 100% for Stockport County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bradford keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Bradford's games and 100% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Bradford's matches and 100% of Stockport County's.
Do Bradford and Stockport County tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stockport County defy the odds to beat Bradford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Bradford 0-1 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.87 xG and Stockport County 0.87 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bradford fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 1.13 / defence 0.87 against Stockport County attack 0.97 / defence 1.37, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 61% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 17%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Stockport County win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 64%, Stockport County 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Stockport County's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bradford arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Stockport County winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bradford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.