Bradford 3-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bradford at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bradford vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Stevenage travel to University of Bradford Stadium to take on Bradford. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bradford stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at University of Bradford Stadium, Bradford have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at University of Bradford Stadium.
Stevenage — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bradford 2.00 PPG, Stevenage 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bradford, 0 for Stevenage and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2022, ended 1–0 with Bradford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bradford in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Stevenage in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bradford 57% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bradford 44% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bradford 1.06 xG and Stevenage 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bradford attack 0.929 / defence 0.817 | Stevenage attack 1.028 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.266 / away 1.036. Data: 54 Bradford games / 54 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bradford 39% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: Bradford 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Stevenage 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bradford as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bradford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.93 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Bradford 50% | Stevenage 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bradford vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: University of Bradford Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bradford 39% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Bradford 1.06 / Stevenage 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Bradford attack 0.929 / def 0.817 | Stevenage attack 1.028 / def 0.899 | league avg home 1.266 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Bradford (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Bradford xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Stevenage xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bradford vs Stevenage kick off?
Bradford vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at University of Bradford Stadium.
What was the final score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Bradford 3 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Bradford vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at University of Bradford Stadium.
What competition is Bradford vs Stevenage part of?
Bradford vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Bradford a 39% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bradford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Bradford and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Bradford vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
Record (2 meetings): Bradford 2W | Draws 0 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in?
Bradford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Stevenage (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bradford's attack at 0.93x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Bradford's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bradford Win
39%
2.56
32%
3.15
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Bradford xG
Total xG
1.93
0.87
Stevenage xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.11
10%
9.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Bradford and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Bradford and 0.87 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Bradford vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Bradford have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 18W 18D 18L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 17W 15D 22L from 54 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bradford on 1.33 PPG, Stevenage on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bradford have posted 1.33 PPG from 27 outings (8W 12D 7L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 4W 9D 14L from 27 away games — 0.78 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bradford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bradford are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.04 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 54 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bradford
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bradford and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Bradford have gone 18W 18D 18L in their last 54 games (1.33 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 17W 15D 22L in their last 54 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bradford at home or Stevenage away?
Bradford's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bradford at home: 1.33 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bradford and Stevenage runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bradford's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Bradford
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bradford and Stevenage?
From 6 meetings on record, Bradford have won 4, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bradford and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Bradford and Stevenage?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bradford 67%, Stevenage 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bradford) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bradford home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bradford play Stevenage?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bradford's games and 44% of Stevenage's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bradford vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bradford's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bradford and Stevenage tend to score early?
Bradford have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bradford run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bradford beat Stevenage 3-0 at University of Bradford Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bradford 1.06 xG and Stevenage 0.87 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Bradford beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bradford attack 0.93 / defence 0.82 against Stevenage attack 1.03 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bradford 39% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 29%, with Bradford to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bradford 44%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bradford's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bradford 1.33 PPG, Stevenage 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bradford win broke the near-deadlock. Bradford (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.