Barrow 0-1 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Gillingham at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Barrow vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Holker Street plays host to Barrow versus Gillingham in League Two, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Barrow have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 0D 8L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Barrow have posted 1W 3D 6L at Holker Street — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Gillingham's overall League Two record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gillingham's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Barrow, 1.00 for Gillingham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Barrow 3W, Gillingham 2W, 2D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Barrow half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Gillingham half-time and goal-timing data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Barrow 47% versus Gillingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Barrow 47% | Gillingham 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Barrow 0.78 xG and Gillingham 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Barrow attack 0.692 / defence 1.142 | Gillingham attack 0.850 / defence 0.906. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.187. Barrow's attack strength of 0.692 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 78 Barrow games / 78 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Barrow 25% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 44%. Fair-value odds: Barrow 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Gillingham 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gillingham as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gillingham if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Barrow 40% | Gillingham 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Barrow vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Holker Street • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Barrow 25% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Barrow 0.78 / Gillingham 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Barrow attack 0.692 / def 1.142 | Gillingham attack 0.850 / def 0.906 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Barrow xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gillingham xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Barrow vs Gillingham kick off?
Barrow vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Holker Street.
What was the final score in Barrow vs Gillingham?
Barrow 0 - 1 Gillingham.
Where is Barrow vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Holker Street.
What competition is Barrow vs Gillingham part of?
Barrow vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Barrow vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Barrow a 25% chance of winning, Gillingham a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Barrow vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Barrow and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Barrow vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Gillingham?
Record (7 meetings): Barrow 3W | Draws 2 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Barrow and Gillingham in?
Barrow (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Gillingham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Barrow's attack at 0.69x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.78 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.85x) against Barrow's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
25%
4.02
31%
3.25
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Barrow xG
Total xG
1.93
1.15
Gillingham xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
8%
12.73
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 16.7 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Barrow vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Barrow and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Barrow and 1.15 for Gillingham, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Barrow vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 78 outings, Barrow have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 22W 20D 36L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 24W 27D 27L from 78 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Barrow against 1.27 for Gillingham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Barrow have posted 1.29 PPG from 38 outings (13W 10D 15L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 7W 16D 15L from 38 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Barrow are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.04 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 78 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Barrow
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Barrow and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Barrow have gone 22W 20D 36L in their last 78 games (1.10 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 24W 27D 27L in their last 78 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Barrow at home or Gillingham away?
Barrow's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Barrow at home: 1.29 PPG; Gillingham away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Barrow or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Barrow have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Gillingham in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gillingham won 3-0 on 13 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Barrow have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Gillingham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Barrow
2
Draws
3
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Barrow and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Barrow have won 3, Gillingham have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Barrow and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Barrow 0-1 Gillingham.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gillingham see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Barrow 42%, Gillingham 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Barrow) and 29% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Barrow keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Barrow have failed to score in 32% of games; Gillingham in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Barrow home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Barrow play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Barrow's recent matches and 50% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Barrow vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Barrow's recent games and 29% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Barrow and Gillingham tend to score early?
Barrow have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gillingham edge out Barrow 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Barrow 0-1 at Holker Street, Regular Season - 35, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Barrow 0.78 xG and Gillingham 1.15 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Barrow attack 0.69 / defence 1.14 against Gillingham attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Barrow 25% | Draw 31% | Gillingham 44%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Barrow 47%, Gillingham 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Barrow's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gillingham's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Barrow 1.10 PPG, Gillingham 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Barrow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.