AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton Utd – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd meet at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AFC Wimbledon have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League Two appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sutton Utd (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Sutton Utd — key trading statistics (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 57% versus Sutton Utd 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 47% | Sutton Utd 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.31 xG and Sutton Utd 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.881 / defence 1.195 | Sutton Utd attack 0.815 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.035. Sutton Utd bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing AFC Wimbledon's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 AFC Wimbledon games / 59 Sutton Utd games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 43% | Draw 28% | Sutton Utd 29%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Sutton Utd 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AFC Wimbledon are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 60% | Sutton Utd 30% BTTS from recent games.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 43% | Draw 28% | Sutton Utd 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.31 / Sutton Utd 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.881 / def 1.195 | Sutton Utd attack 0.815 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sutton Utd xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Sutton Utd.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 43% chance of winning, Sutton Utd a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Sutton Utd (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Sutton Utd's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Sutton Utd's attack (0.81x) against AFC Wimbledon's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 12/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
43%
2.30
28%
3.59
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.31
1.01
Sutton Utd xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
27%
3.70
Win to Nil
16%
6.32
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.0 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 1.01 for Sutton Utd, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 9W 22D 27L from 58 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sutton Utd, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 20L across 58 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sutton Utd by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over AFC Wimbledon heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 4W 15D 9L from 28 games — 0.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sutton Utd's away record stands at 8W 6D 14L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sutton Utd's season.
Attack vs Defence
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Sutton Utd are on 1.38 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Sutton Utd
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 9W 22D 27L in their last 58 games (0.84 PPG), while Sutton Utd have gone 26W 12D 20L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Sutton Utd away?
Sutton Utd's away record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 0.96 PPG; Sutton Utd away: 1.07 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Sutton Utd been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sutton Utd in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AFC Wimbledon won 0-3 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AFC Wimbledon have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sutton Utd — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
AFC Wimbledon
0
Draws
3
Sutton Utd
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 1, Sutton Utd have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2023, when AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AFC Wimbledon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 61%, Sutton Utd 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (AFC Wimbledon) and 43% (Sutton Utd).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 36% of games; Sutton Utd in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Sutton Utd away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Sutton Utd?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 46% of Sutton Utd's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Sutton Utd usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 43% of Sutton Utd's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AFC Wimbledon and Sutton Utd tend to score early?
AFC Wimbledon have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sutton Utd in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sutton Utd defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.31 xG and Sutton Utd 1.01 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.88 / defence 1.20 against Sutton Utd attack 0.81 / defence 1.22, drawn from 12/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 43% | Draw 28% | Sutton Utd 29%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sutton Utd win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 47%, Sutton Utd 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sutton Utd's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Sutton Utd arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.