AFC Wimbledon 2-3 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AFC Wimbledon at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Stevenage travel to The Cherry Red Records Stadium to take on AFC Wimbledon. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 28 February 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AFC Wimbledon stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, AFC Wimbledon have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — AFC Wimbledon are significantly better at The Cherry Red Records Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Stevenage have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 7D 1L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (AFC Wimbledon) versus 1.30 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
AFC Wimbledon in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (77 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 52% versus Stevenage 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 42% | Stevenage 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.97 xG and Stevenage 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.851 / defence 0.873 | Stevenage attack 0.835 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.109. Data: 32 AFC Wimbledon games / 77 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 29%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Stevenage 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.81 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 34%. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 40% | Stevenage 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Feb 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.97 / Stevenage 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.851 / def 0.873 | Stevenage attack 0.835 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Stevenage xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 February 2023 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
AFC Wimbledon 2 - 3 Stevenage.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 38% chance of winning, Stevenage a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Stevenage (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AFC Wimbledon's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/77 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.03
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.78
0.81
Stevenage xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
17%
5.91
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 13.7 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 13.2 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.81 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 77 outings, AFC Wimbledon have picked up 0.99 PPG on a 15W 31D 31L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 27W 23D 27L from 77 games, 1.35 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 0.99 PPG, Stevenage on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AFC Wimbledon have posted 1.16 PPG from 38 outings (8W 20D 10L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 6W 16D 16L from 38 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.14 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 77 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 15W 31D 31L in their last 77 games (0.99 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 27W 23D 27L in their last 77 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Stevenage away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.16 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.89 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Stevenage in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
3
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Stevenage have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Stevenage?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 55%, Stevenage 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AFC Wimbledon) and 40% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 34% of games; Stevenage in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 47% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 40% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Stevenage defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage beat AFC Wimbledon 2-3 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.97 xG and Stevenage 0.81 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. AFC Wimbledon beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stevenage outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.85 / defence 0.87 against Stevenage attack 0.83 / defence 0.97, drawn from 32/77 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 38% | Draw 33% | Stevenage 29%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Stevenage win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 42%, Stevenage 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (77 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (77 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 0.99 PPG, Stevenage 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stevenage win broke the near-deadlock. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stevenage (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.