Accrington ST 0-1 Barnet – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Barnet fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Accrington ST host Barnet at The Wham Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Accrington ST have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at The Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Barnet stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Barnet's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Accrington ST) versus 1.50 (Barnet). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Accrington ST have won 0, Barnet 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Barnet winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Accrington ST in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Barnet in-play and half-time data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 39% versus Barnet 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Accrington ST 30% | Barnet 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.15 xG and Barnet 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.880 / defence 0.903 | Barnet attack 0.885 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.180. Data: 78 Accrington ST games / 33 Barnet games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 40% | Draw 30% | Barnet 30%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Barnet 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Accrington ST offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Accrington ST 40% | Barnet 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Barnet | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 40% | Draw 30% | Barnet 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Accrington ST 1.15 / Barnet 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.880 / def 0.903 | Barnet attack 0.885 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Barnet xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Barnet kick off?
Accrington ST vs Barnet kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Barnet?
Accrington ST 0 - 1 Barnet.
Where is Accrington ST vs Barnet being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Barnet part of?
Accrington ST vs Barnet is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Barnet?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 40% chance of winning, Barnet a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Barnet?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Accrington ST and Barnet will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Barnet have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Barnet?
Record (1 meetings): Accrington ST 0W | Draws 0 | Barnet 1W.
What form are Accrington ST and Barnet in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Barnet (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Accrington ST's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Barnet's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Barnet's attack versus Accrington ST's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
40%
2.48
30%
3.36
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.09
0.94
Barnet xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Barnet?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Barnet expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.94 for Barnet, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Barnet?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 13W 7D 13L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Barnet's form line: 12W 11D 10L from 33 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Accrington ST on 1.39 PPG, Barnet on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (8W 3D 5L).
On the road, Barnet have gone 6W 6D 4L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Accrington ST are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Barnet are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Barnet in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Current Season
Barnet
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Barnet in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 13W 7D 13L in their last 33 games (1.39 PPG), while Barnet have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Barnet away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.69 PPG; Barnet away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Accrington ST or Barnet been keeping clean sheets recently?
Accrington ST have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Barnet in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Accrington ST and Barnet runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Accrington ST
0
Draws
2
Barnet
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Barnet?
From 2 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 0, Barnet have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Barnet last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Accrington ST 0-1 Barnet.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Barnet?
Barnet have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Barnet see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 44%, Barnet 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Accrington ST and 31% for Barnet.
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Barnet in 44%; Barnet in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Barnet away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Barnet?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 44% of Barnet's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Barnet usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Accrington ST's recent games and 31% of Barnet's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Barnet tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Barnet in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Barnet defy the odds to beat Accrington ST 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Barnet beat Accrington ST 0-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.15 xG and Barnet 0.94 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Accrington ST fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.88 / defence 0.90 against Barnet attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 78/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 40% | Draw 30% | Barnet 30%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Barnet win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 30%, Barnet 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Barnet's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.39 PPG, Barnet 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Barnet win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward. Barnet (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.