Wycombe 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Wycombe at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wycombe vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charlton travel to Adams Park to take on Wycombe in League One (matchday 46). The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Wycombe stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Wycombe's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Charlton — last 10 games: 3W 7D 0L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Wycombe are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Wycombe, 1 for Charlton and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Wycombe 1–3 Charlton — a Charlton win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Wycombe in-play and half-time data (last 91 games, 45 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 91 games, 45 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wycombe 46% versus Charlton 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wycombe 45% | Charlton 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wycombe 1.44 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wycombe attack 1.013 / defence 1.015 | Charlton attack 1.054 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.193. Data: built from Wycombe's last 91 games and Charlton's last 91.
Result probabilities: Wycombe 41% | Draw 26% | Charlton 33%. Fair-value odds: Wycombe 2.44 | Draw 3.90 | Charlton 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wycombe at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wycombe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Wycombe's last 10 home games and Charlton's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Wycombe 50% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wycombe vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 46 | Venue: Adams Park • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wycombe 41% | Draw 26% | Charlton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Wycombe 1.44 / Charlton 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Wycombe attack 1.013 / def 1.015 | Charlton attack 1.054 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Wycombe (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Wycombe xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Charlton xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Wycombe vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Wycombe vs Charlton kick off?
Wycombe vs Charlton kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Adams Park.
What was the final score in Wycombe vs Charlton?
Wycombe 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Wycombe vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Adams Park.
What competition is Wycombe vs Charlton part of?
Wycombe vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 46) (England).
Who is favourite to win Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Wycombe a 41% chance of winning, Charlton a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Wycombe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Wycombe and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Wycombe vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wycombe's attack rating (1.01) and Charlton's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.44 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Wycombe's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Wycombe's last 91 games and Charlton's last 91 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wycombe Win
41%
2.44
26%
3.90
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Wycombe xG
Total xG
2.72
1.28
Charlton xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Wycombe vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Wycombe vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Wycombe and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Wycombe and 1.28 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Wycombe vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 91 outings, Wycombe have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 36W 23D 32L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Charlton's form line: 27W 34D 30L from 91 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-W-D-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wycombe on 1.44 PPG, Charlton on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Wycombe have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 45 home games (19W 12D 14L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 10W 19D 16L from their last 45 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wycombe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wycombe are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.47 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 68%.
Last 91 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wycombe
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
Wycombe (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Wycombe
Current Season
Charlton
Current Season
❓ Wycombe vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Wycombe and Charlton in coming into this match?
Wycombe have gone 36W 23D 32L in their last 91 games (1.44 PPG), while Charlton have gone 27W 34D 30L in their last 91 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wycombe at home or Charlton away?
Wycombe's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wycombe at home: 1.53 PPG; Charlton away: 1.09 PPG.
Have Wycombe or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wycombe have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Charlton in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 15 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Apr 2025, when Charlton won Wycombe 0-4 Charlton.
Wycombe's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wycombe
3
Draws
4
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Wycombe vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Wycombe and Charlton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Wycombe have won 3, Charlton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wycombe and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 May 2025: Charlton 1-0 Wycombe.
Who has won more matches between Wycombe and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wycombe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wycombe 44%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Wycombe) and 44% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Wycombe keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Wycombe have failed to score in 27% of games; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wycombe home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Wycombe vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Wycombe and Charlton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Wycombe's recent matches and 64% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Wycombe and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Wycombe's recent games and 44% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wycombe and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Wycombe's recent matches and 69% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Wycombe edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wycombe beat Charlton 1-0 at Adams Park, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wycombe 1.44 xG and Charlton 1.28 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wycombe attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 1.09, drawn from 91/91 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wycombe 41% | Draw 26% | Charlton 33%, with Wycombe to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wycombe 45%, Charlton 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wycombe's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wycombe 1.44 PPG, Charlton 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wycombe win broke the near-deadlock. Wycombe (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 46
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →