Wigan 0-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wigan at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wigan vs Lincoln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wigan and Lincoln meet at DW Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wigan have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Wigan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wigan's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at DW Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lincoln (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Wigan lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 3–1 with Wigan winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wigan 58% versus Lincoln 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Wigan 43% | Lincoln 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wigan 1.30 xG and Lincoln 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wigan attack 1.166 / defence 0.997 | Lincoln attack 0.930 / defence 0.816. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.146. Data: 19 Wigan games / 66 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wigan 42% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 30%. Fair-value odds: Wigan 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Lincoln 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wigan at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wigan if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Wigan 50% | Lincoln 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wigan vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: DW Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wigan 42% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Wigan 1.30 / Lincoln 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Wigan attack 1.166 / def 0.997 | Lincoln attack 0.930 / def 0.816 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Wigan (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Wigan xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lincoln xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wigan vs Lincoln kick off?
Wigan vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at DW Stadium.
What was the final score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Wigan 0 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Wigan vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at DW Stadium.
What competition is Wigan vs Lincoln part of?
Wigan vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Wigan a 42% chance of winning, Lincoln a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wigan and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Wigan vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
Record (2 meetings): Wigan 1W | Draws 0 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in?
Wigan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wigan's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Lincoln's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.93x) against Wigan's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 19/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
42%
2.40
28%
3.52
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Wigan xG
Total xG
2.37
1.06
Lincoln xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
8%
12.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Wigan and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Wigan and 1.06 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Wigan vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wigan's recent record stands at 19W 18D 28L from 65 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Wigan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lincoln, meanwhile, have gone 22W 25D 18L across 65 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Wigan against 1.40 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Wigan have managed 11W 7D 14L from 32 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lincoln's away record stands at 10W 8D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Wigan are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.11 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wigan
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wigan and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Wigan have gone 19W 18D 28L in their last 65 games (1.15 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 22W 25D 18L in their last 65 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wigan at home or Lincoln away?
Wigan's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wigan at home: 1.25 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Wigan or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wigan have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Lincoln in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wigan have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wigan
4
Draws
2
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wigan and Lincoln?
From 8 meetings on record, Wigan have won 2, Lincoln have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wigan and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wigan 53%, Lincoln 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Wigan) and 38% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 34%; Wigan have failed to score in 28% of games; Lincoln in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wigan home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wigan play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Wigan's recent matches and 38% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wigan vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Wigan's recent games and 38% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wigan and Lincoln tend to score early?
Wigan have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Wigan's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wigan and Lincoln finished level at 0-0 at DW Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wigan 1.30 xG and Lincoln 1.06 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Wigan fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Lincoln landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wigan attack 1.17 / defence 1.00 against Lincoln attack 0.93 / defence 0.82, drawn from 19/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wigan 42% | Draw 28% | Lincoln 30%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wigan 43%, Lincoln 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wigan's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lincoln's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wigan 1.15 PPG, Lincoln 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.