Sunderland 1-0 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Bolton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bolton make the trip to Stadium of Light to face Sunderland in League One, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Sunderland (all games): 5W 1D 1L across 7 League One fixtures this term — 2.29 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.71 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 71% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sunderland have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's form when playing at home: 4W 0D 0L across 4 games at Stadium of Light this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.29 — Sunderland are significantly better at Stadium of Light than their overall form suggests.
Bolton have collected 1.50 PPG across 8 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 2L. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.75 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton away from home this season: 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The points-per-game gap of 0.79 in Sunderland's favour (2.29 vs 1.50) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sunderland — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Bolton — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 71% versus Bolton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 71% | Bolton 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.58 xG and Bolton 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.245 / defence 0.941 | Bolton attack 1.160 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.010 / away 1.208. Bolton bring a strong defensive rating of 1.260 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Sunderland games / 8 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 44% | Draw 25% | Bolton 32%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Bolton 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 75% | Bolton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 44% | Draw 25% | Bolton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Sunderland 1.58 / Bolton 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.245 / def 0.941 | Bolton attack 1.160 / def 1.260 | league avg home 1.010 / away 1.208 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Bolton xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Bolton kick off?
Sunderland vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Bolton?
Sunderland 1 - 0 Bolton.
Where is Sunderland vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Bolton part of?
Sunderland vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 44% chance of winning, Bolton a 32% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sunderland and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sunderland and Bolton in?
Sunderland (all comps): 5W-1D-1L in 7 | 2.29 PPG | GF 1.71 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Bolton (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (1.25) and Bolton's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.16x) against Sunderland's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 7/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
44%
2.29
25%
4.08
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.90
1.32
Bolton xG
2.29
44%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
7%
15.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.8 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.32 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Sunderland have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 5W 1D 1L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bolton's form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Bolton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sunderland are the form team by 0.72 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bolton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 3.00 PPG from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.29 PPG overall — Sunderland are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bolton have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sunderland come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.57 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sunderland have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Early Season
Bolton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Bolton in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 5W 1D 1L in their last 7 games (2.29 PPG), while Bolton have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Bolton away?
Sunderland's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 3.00 PPG; Bolton away: 1.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sunderland
0
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Bolton?
From 2 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 1, Bolton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2022, when Bolton 6-0 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 75%, Bolton 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sunderland and 50% for Bolton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Bolton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Sunderland's games and 50% of Bolton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sunderland's matches and 50% of Bolton's.
Do Sunderland and Bolton tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bolton in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Bolton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Bolton 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.58 xG and Bolton 1.32 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bolton landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.25 / defence 0.94 against Bolton attack 1.16 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 44% | Draw 25% | Bolton 32%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 71%, Bolton 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Bolton's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.57. Form held, and they took the win. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Bolton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.