Stockport County 3-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Stevenage encounter.

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Full Analysis

Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One (matchday 40). Kick-off: Tuesday 1 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Stockport County's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stevenage have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.90 PPG lead over Stevenage (1.80 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Stevenage edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Stockport County 1–2 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Stockport County — key trading statistics (last 84 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 84 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 54% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 49% | Stevenage 42%). Note also that Stevenage surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.16 xG and Stevenage 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.055 / defence 0.906 | Stevenage attack 0.782 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.268 / away 1.111. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.782 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Stockport County's last 39 games and Stevenage's last 84.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 44% | Draw 32% | Stevenage 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 2.27 | Draw 3.15 | Stevenage 4.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 60% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 40% (last 10 away games).

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