Stockport County 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stockport County and Peterborough meet at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Stockport County have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Peterborough have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Stockport County against 1.30 for Peterborough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 53% versus Peterborough 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 53% | Peterborough 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.00 xG and Peterborough 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.155 / defence 1.043 | Peterborough attack 1.078 / defence 1.317. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.131. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.317 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Stockport County's last 20 games and Peterborough's last 65.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 54% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 24%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.84 | Draw 4.62 | Peterborough 4.15. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.00 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 30% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 21 | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 54% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Stockport County 2.00 / Peterborough 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.155 / def 1.043 | Peterborough attack 1.078 / def 1.317 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Peterborough xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stockport County vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Stockport County vs Peterborough kick off?
Stockport County vs Peterborough kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 20 December 2024 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Stockport County 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Stockport County vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Peterborough part of?
Stockport County vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 54% chance of winning, Peterborough a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Stockport County and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Stockport County vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Stockport County's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Peterborough's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.08x) against Stockport County's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from Stockport County's last 20 games and Peterborough's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.62
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Stockport County xG
Total xG
3.27
1.27
Peterborough xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
14%
7.35
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
3%
30.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stockport County vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Stockport County and 1.27 for Peterborough, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stockport County's recent record stands at 36W 17D 13L from 66 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 31W 13D 22L across 66 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for Stockport County against 1.61 for Peterborough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stockport County have managed 21W 6D 4L from their last 31 home games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 13W 5D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stockport County are averaging 1.94 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.91 scored and 1.48 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 65%.
Defensively: Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
Stockport County (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stockport County
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Stockport County vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Stockport County and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 36W 17D 13L in their last 66 games (1.89 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 31W 13D 22L in their last 66 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Peterborough away?
Stockport County's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.23 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Peterborough in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Stockport County and Peterborough, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Stockport County have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Peterborough 3-0 Stockport County on 20 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Stockport County
1
Draws
1
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Stockport County vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Peterborough?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Stockport County have won 3, Peterborough have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Stockport County 1-0 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Stockport County and Peterborough?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 32%, Peterborough 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Stockport County) and 64% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stockport County vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stockport County and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Stockport County's recent matches and 64% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stockport County and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Stockport County's recent games and 64% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Stockport County's recent matches and 68% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Peterborough 2-1 at Edgeley Park, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 2.00 xG and Peterborough 1.27 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.16 / defence 1.04 against Peterborough attack 1.08 / defence 1.32, drawn from 20/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 54% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 24%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 53%, Peterborough 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (66 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (66 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.89 PPG, Peterborough 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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