Stevenage vs Blackpool – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Blackpool fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Lamex Stadium plays host to Stevenage versus Blackpool in League One, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 28 November 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Stevenage have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's home record at Lamex Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League One appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Blackpool (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Blackpool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Blackpool's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Stevenage, 1.10 for Blackpool — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Blackpool and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Blackpool half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 46% versus Blackpool 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Blackpool 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.51 xG and Blackpool 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.984 / defence 0.870 | Blackpool attack 0.710 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.302. Data: 55 Stevenage games / 55 Blackpool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 53% | Draw 28% | Blackpool 19%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Blackpool 5.26. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 40% | Blackpool 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Blackpool | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 53% | Draw 28% | Blackpool 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 44% | xG Stevenage 1.51 / Blackpool 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.984 / def 0.870 | Blackpool attack 0.710 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Blackpool xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Blackpool kick off?
Stevenage vs Blackpool is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Lamex Stadium.
Where is Stevenage vs Blackpool being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Blackpool part of?
Stevenage vs Blackpool is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 53% chance of winning, Blackpool a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stevenage and Blackpool will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Blackpool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Record (6 meetings): Stevenage 3W | Draws 1 | Blackpool 2W.
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in?
Stevenage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Blackpool (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 0.98x the league average against Blackpool's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Blackpool's attack (0.71x) against Stevenage's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
53%
1.89
28%
3.55
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.31
0.80
Blackpool xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
22%
4.51
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
4%
23.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.0 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Blackpool expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.80 for Blackpool, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Blackpool?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage's recent record stands at 22W 15D 18L from 55 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Blackpool, meanwhile, have gone 19W 11D 25L across 55 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Blackpool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Stevenage against 1.24 for Blackpool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 15W 8D 4L from 27 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Stevenage are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Blackpool's away record stands at 6W 4D 17L across 27 trips, a 0.81 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Blackpool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Blackpool are on 1.22 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Blackpool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Blackpool in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 22W 15D 18L in their last 55 games (1.47 PPG), while Blackpool have gone 19W 11D 25L in their last 55 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Blackpool away?
Stevenage's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.96 PPG; Blackpool away: 0.81 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Blackpool been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Blackpool in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Stevenage go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Blackpool won 3-0 on 14 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Blackpool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Stevenage
1
Draws
2
Blackpool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Blackpool?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 3, Blackpool have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Blackpool last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Stevenage 1-0 Blackpool.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Blackpool?
Stevenage have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches.
Blackpool see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 44%, Blackpool 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Stevenage) and 44% (Blackpool).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Blackpool in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Blackpool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Blackpool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Stevenage's recent matches and 41% of Blackpool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Blackpool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Stevenage's recent games and 44% of Blackpool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.