Shrewsbury 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 16 as Shrewsbury welcome Charlton to Montgomery Waters Meadow. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Shrewsbury have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Shrewsbury, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shrewsbury's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Montgomery Waters Meadow this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Charlton — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Shrewsbury, 1 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Shrewsbury in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Charlton in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 44% versus Charlton 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 41% | Charlton 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.45 xG and Charlton 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 1.020 / defence 1.025 | Charlton attack 0.839 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.250. Data: 59 Shrewsbury games / 60 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 46% | Draw 26% | Charlton 28%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 3.57. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shrewsbury as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 50% | Charlton 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 46% | Draw 26% | Charlton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Shrewsbury 1.45 / Charlton 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 1.020 / def 1.025 | Charlton attack 0.839 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.250 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Charlton xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Charlton kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Shrewsbury 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Charlton part of?
Shrewsbury vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 46% chance of winning, Charlton a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Shrewsbury and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 1W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Charlton (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shrewsbury's attack at 1.02x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.81
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.52
1.07
Charlton xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
7%
15.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.07 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Shrewsbury have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 18W 17D 24L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 21W 14D 24L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shrewsbury on 1.20 PPG, Charlton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shrewsbury have posted 1.52 PPG from 29 outings (12W 8D 9L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Charlton in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 18W 17D 24L in their last 59 games (1.20 PPG), while Charlton have gone 21W 14D 24L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Charlton away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.52 PPG; Charlton away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charlton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Charlton won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Charlton 1-0 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 52%, Charlton 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Shrewsbury) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Shrewsbury's games and 62% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Charlton tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Charlton in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charlton defy the odds to beat Shrewsbury 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Shrewsbury 0-1 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.45 xG and Charlton 1.07 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shrewsbury fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 1.02 / defence 1.02 against Charlton attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 46% | Draw 26% | Charlton 28%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 41%, Charlton 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.