Shrewsbury 0-2 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Burton Albion at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shrewsbury and Burton Albion meet at The Croud Meadow in League One, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 March 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Shrewsbury (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shrewsbury's home record at The Croud Meadow: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Burton Albion's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burton Albion are 0.70 PPG clear of Shrewsbury in recent League One fixtures (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shrewsbury lead 4W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Burton Albion winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shrewsbury goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 43% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 42% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 0.95 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.812 / defence 1.185 | Burton Albion attack 0.780 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.110. Data: 82 Shrewsbury games / 82 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 36%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Burton Albion 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shrewsbury 60% | Burton Albion 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Mar 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Shrewsbury 0.95 / Burton Albion 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.812 / def 1.185 | Burton Albion attack 0.780 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Burton Albion xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 March 2025 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Shrewsbury 0 - 2 Burton Albion.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion part of?
Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 32% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Shrewsbury and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Burton Albion?
Record (7 meetings): Shrewsbury 4W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 3W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Burton Albion in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.81) and Burton Albion's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.78x) against Shrewsbury's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 82/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
32%
3.11
32%
3.15
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
1.97
1.02
Burton Albion xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.67
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 14.2 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.02 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury's recent record stands at 20W 16D 46L from 82 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 41L across 82 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-W-D-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Shrewsbury against 0.96 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Shrewsbury have managed 13W 6D 22L from 41 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 9W 13D 19L across 41 trips, a 0.98 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.91 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 20W 16D 46L in their last 82 games (0.93 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 19W 22D 41L in their last 82 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Burton Albion away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.10 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Burton Albion have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won 0-4 on 14 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Shrewsbury
0
Draws
4
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Burton Albion?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 4, Burton Albion have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Shrewsbury 0-2 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 44%, Burton Albion 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shrewsbury) and 44% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury have failed to score in 42% of games; Burton Albion in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 44% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shrewsbury vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 44% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Shrewsbury.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Shrewsbury 0-2 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 0.95 xG and Burton Albion 1.02 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Shrewsbury fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Burton Albion outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 0.94, drawn from 82/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 32% | Draw 32% | Burton Albion 36%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 42%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 0.93 PPG, Burton Albion 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.