Portsmouth 3-3 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Fleetwood Town travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 February 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Portsmouth at Fratton Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Fleetwood Town — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Fleetwood Town's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Portsmouth at 1.40 PPG versus Fleetwood Town's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Portsmouth, 0 for Fleetwood Town and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Portsmouth winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Fleetwood Town in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 42% versus Fleetwood Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 52% | Fleetwood Town 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.75 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.088 / defence 1.058 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.710 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.227. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Portsmouth games / 31 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 56% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 19%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Fleetwood Town 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Portsmouth (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Portsmouth 50% | Fleetwood Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 56% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Portsmouth 1.75 / Fleetwood Town 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.088 / def 1.058 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.710 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Fleetwood Town xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 February 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Portsmouth 3 - 3 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 56% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Portsmouth 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.09) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fleetwood Town's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
56%
1.78
25%
4.04
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.67
0.92
Fleetwood Town xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
5.77
Win to Nil
22%
4.46
3%
30.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.92 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 13W 8D 10L from 31 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Fleetwood Town, meanwhile, have gone 7W 11D 13L across 31 games — 1.03 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portsmouth by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fleetwood Town heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fleetwood Town's away record stands at 2W 6D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.42 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 65%.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 13W 8D 10L in their last 31 games (1.52 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 11D 13L in their last 31 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.80 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Fleetwood Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Fleetwood Town in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth's record when hosting Fleetwood Town specifically: 0W 3D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Portsmouth
3
Draws
0
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 20 January 2024, when Fleetwood Town 0-1 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 47%, Fleetwood Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Portsmouth) and 53% (Fleetwood Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Portsmouth's games and 67% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Portsmouth vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Portsmouth's matches and 53% of Fleetwood Town's.
Do Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 36, as Portsmouth and Fleetwood Town drew 3-3 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.75 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.92 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Portsmouth beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fleetwood Town outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.09 / defence 1.06 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.71 / defence 1.46, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 56% | Draw 25% | Fleetwood Town 19%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 52%, Fleetwood Town 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.