Portsmouth 2-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 42%, yet in-form Portsmouth provide a compelling counter-argument — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in League One (matchday 42). Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Portsmouth have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Derby (all games): 7W 0D 3L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derby have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Portsmouth's 2.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Derby's 2.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Portsmouth, 0 for Derby and 3 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Portsmouth 1–1 Derby — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 51% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 46% | Derby 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Derby 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.280 / defence 1.048 | Derby attack 1.171 / defence 0.736. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.177. Portsmouth carry an above-average attack rating of 1.280 — their 1.23 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Derby bring a tight defence (rating 0.736, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Portsmouth's projected output down. Data: built from Portsmouth's last 86 games and Derby's last 87.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 26% | Derby 42%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 3.11 | Draw 3.84 | Derby 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Portsmouth (2.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Portsmouth's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Portsmouth 70% (last 10 home games) | Derby 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 32% | Draw 26% | Derby 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Portsmouth 1.23 / Derby 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.280 / def 1.048 | Derby attack 1.171 / def 0.736 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Derby (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Derby xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby FAQs
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby kick off?
Portsmouth vs Derby kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth 2 - 2 Derby.
Where is Portsmouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Derby part of?
Portsmouth vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 32% chance of winning, Derby a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Portsmouth and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Portsmouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.28) and Derby's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.17x) against Portsmouth's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Portsmouth's last 86 games and Derby's last 87 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
32%
3.11
26%
3.84
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.68
1.44
Derby xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
13.17
12%
8.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.9 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.44 for Derby, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 42W 30D 14L from 86 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 45W 19D 22L across 86 games — 1.79 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.81 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.79 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 22W 15D 5L from their last 42 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 20W 9D 13L across their last 42 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.58 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Derby in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
Portsmouth (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Portsmouth
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 42W 30D 14L in their last 86 games (1.81 PPG), while Derby have gone 45W 19D 22L in their last 86 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Derby away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.93 PPG; Derby away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Derby in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Portsmouth and Derby, the earliest from November 2022. They cover more than one competition — League One, Championship. The most recent was as recently as 1 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Derby have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won Derby 4-0 Portsmouth on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 3D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Portsmouth have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 September 2026: Portsmouth 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 60%, Derby 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Portsmouth) and 48% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Derby in 38%; Derby in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Portsmouth vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Portsmouth and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 45% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Portsmouth and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Portsmouth's recent games and 48% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 67% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth and Derby share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth and Derby finished level at 2-2 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.23 xG and Derby 1.44 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.28 / defence 1.05 against Derby attack 1.17 / defence 0.74, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 32% | Draw 26% | Derby 42%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 46%, Derby 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.81 PPG, Derby 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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