Plymouth 0-2 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Plymouth and Lincoln meet at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 41. This fixture gets under way on Monday 10 April 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Plymouth's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Home Park this term (2.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Lincoln have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Plymouth. A 1.10 PPG lead over Lincoln (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Plymouth lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lincoln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 48% versus Lincoln 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 49% | Lincoln 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.60 xG and Lincoln 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.251 / defence 0.816 | Lincoln attack 0.877 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.096. Plymouth carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 1.60 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 85 Plymouth games / 85 Lincoln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 18%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Lincoln 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Plymouth at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 50% | Lincoln 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Monday 10 Apr 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 56% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 44% | xG Plymouth 1.60 / Lincoln 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.251 / def 0.816 | Lincoln attack 0.877 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Lincoln xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Lincoln kick off?
Plymouth vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 10 April 2023 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Plymouth 0 - 2 Lincoln.
Where is Plymouth vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Lincoln part of?
Plymouth vs Lincoln is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 56% chance of winning, Lincoln a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Plymouth and Lincoln will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Lincoln?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 2 | Lincoln 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Lincoln in?
Plymouth (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lincoln (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (1.25) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.60 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (0.88x) against Plymouth's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
56%
1.77
25%
3.93
18%
5.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.38
0.78
Lincoln xG
1.77
56%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.53
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.8 | 11.6 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.78 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 85 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 48W 19D 18L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 24W 29D 32L from 85 games, 1.19 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.73 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lincoln.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 2.33 PPG from 42 outings (31W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Plymouth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 12W 10D 20L from 42 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.08 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 85 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 48W 19D 18L in their last 85 games (1.92 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 24W 29D 32L in their last 85 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Lincoln away?
Plymouth's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 2.33 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lincoln in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lincoln have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lincoln won 1-4 on 7 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Plymouth have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lincoln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Plymouth
2
Draws
4
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Lincoln?
From 6 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 0, Lincoln have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Lincoln last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Plymouth 1-4 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 40%, Lincoln 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Plymouth) and 50% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Plymouth keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Lincoln in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Lincoln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Plymouth's recent matches and 55% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Lincoln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Plymouth's recent games and 50% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Lincoln tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lincoln in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Plymouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Plymouth 0-2 at Home Park, Regular Season - 41, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.60 xG and Lincoln 0.78 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Plymouth fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Lincoln outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against Lincoln attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 56% | Draw 25% | Lincoln 18%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Lincoln win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 49%, Lincoln 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Lincoln's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Lincoln winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.