Peterborough 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Peterborough face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Stockport County in League One (matchday 43). Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Peterborough have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Stockport County have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Peterborough, 1 for Stockport County and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 20 Dec 2024, ended Peterborough 1–2 Stockport County — a Stockport County win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Stockport County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Stockport County 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 66% | Stockport County 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.16 xG and Stockport County 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.124 / defence 1.282 | Stockport County attack 0.926 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.277 / away 1.124. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Peterborough's last 87 games and Stockport County's last 42.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 3.11 | Draw 3.66 | Stockport County 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Peterborough 50% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Stockport County | Competition: League One, matchday 43 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 18 April 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Peterborough 1.16 / Stockport County 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.124 / def 1.282 | Stockport County attack 0.926 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.277 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Stockport County xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Stockport County FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Stockport County kick off?
Peterborough vs Stockport County kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 18 April 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Stockport County.
Where is Peterborough vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Stockport County part of?
Peterborough vs Stockport County is a League One fixture (matchday 43) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 32% chance of winning, Stockport County a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Peterborough and Stockport County will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Peterborough's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Stockport County's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Stockport County's attack (0.93x) against Peterborough's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 87 games and Stockport County's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
32%
3.11
27%
3.66
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.49
1.33
Stockport County xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
13%
7.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Stockport County Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.33 for Stockport County, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 88 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 37W 19D 32L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Stockport County's form line: 49W 22D 17L from 88 games, 1.92 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Stockport County are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Peterborough.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.61 PPG from their last 44 home games (20W 11D 13L).
On the road, Stockport County have gone 20W 13D 11L from their last 44 away games — 1.66 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.81 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stockport County in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Stockport County (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Stockport County Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 37W 19D 32L in their last 88 games (1.48 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 49W 22D 17L in their last 88 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.61 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Peterborough or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Peterborough have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stockport County in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Peterborough and Stockport County, the earliest from December 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 26 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Stockport County have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Peterborough 3-0 Stockport County on 20 Nov 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stockport County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Peterborough
1
Draws
3
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Stockport County H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Stockport County?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 1, Stockport County have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Stockport County last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 September 2026: Stockport County 1-0 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 64%, Stockport County 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Peterborough and 52% for Stockport County. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Stockport County Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Stockport County matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Peterborough's games and 64% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Peterborough and Stockport County matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Peterborough's matches and 52% of Stockport County's.
Do Peterborough and Stockport County matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Peterborough's recent matches and 80% of Stockport County's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Stockport County share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Stockport County finished level at 1-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.16 xG and Stockport County 1.33 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.12 / defence 1.28 against Stockport County attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 87/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 32% | Draw 27% | Stockport County 41%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 66%, Stockport County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.48. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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