Peterborough 2-1 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Peterborough vs Northampton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Northampton travel to Weston Homes Stadium to take on Peterborough. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 December 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Peterborough — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Northampton stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Peterborough 1.50 PPG, Northampton 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Peterborough, 3 for Northampton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–4 with Northampton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Peterborough trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Northampton trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 62% versus Northampton 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 62% | Northampton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.34 xG and Northampton 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.152 / defence 1.021 | Northampton attack 0.982 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.085. Data: 64 Peterborough games / 64 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 42% | Draw 27% | Northampton 30%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | Northampton 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Peterborough are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 40% | Northampton 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Dec 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 42% | Draw 27% | Northampton 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Peterborough 1.34 / Northampton 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.152 / def 1.021 | Northampton attack 0.982 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Northampton xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Northampton kick off?
Peterborough vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 December 2025 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Northampton?
Peterborough 2 - 1 Northampton.
Where is Peterborough vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Northampton part of?
Peterborough vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 42% chance of winning, Northampton a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Peterborough and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Northampton?
Record (4 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Northampton 3W.
What form are Peterborough and Northampton in?
Peterborough (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Northampton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.15) and Northampton's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Peterborough's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
42%
2.36
27%
3.68
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.43
1.09
Northampton xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.9 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.09 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 19W 13D 32L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Northampton's form line: 19W 18D 27L from 64 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Peterborough on 1.09 PPG, Northampton on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.32 PPG from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 8W 9D 14L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Peterborough are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.02 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Northampton in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 19W 13D 32L in their last 64 games (1.09 PPG), while Northampton have gone 19W 18D 27L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Northampton away?
Peterborough's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.32 PPG; Northampton away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Peterborough's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
3
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Northampton?
From 6 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Northampton have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Northampton see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 58%, Northampton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 48% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Peterborough have failed to score in 29% of games; Northampton in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Peterborough's recent matches and 52% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Peterborough vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 48% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Northampton tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Northampton in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Northampton 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Northampton 2-1 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.34 xG and Northampton 1.09 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.02 against Northampton attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 42% | Draw 27% | Northampton 30%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 62%, Northampton 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Northampton's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.09 PPG, Northampton 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.