Northampton 1-0 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Northampton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Peterborough have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Peterborough — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 55% versus Peterborough 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 45% | Peterborough 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.77 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.837 / defence 1.217 | Peterborough attack 1.306 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.148. Peterborough's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Peterborough have an above-average attack strength of 1.306 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 3 Northampton games / 49 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 15% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 62%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 6.67 | Draw 4.55 | Peterborough 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Peterborough (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 60% | Peterborough 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 15% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 45% | xG Northampton 0.77 / Peterborough 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.837 / def 1.217 | Peterborough attack 1.306 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Peterborough xG
45%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Peterborough kick off?
Northampton vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Northampton 1 - 0 Peterborough.
Where is Northampton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Peterborough part of?
Northampton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 15% chance of winning, Peterborough a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Northampton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in?
Northampton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Peterborough (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.84) and Peterborough's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 0.77 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.3%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
15%
6.55
22%
4.49
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
12.4%
Away win
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.59
1.82
Peterborough xG
6.55
15%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
2%
40.65
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 13.6 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Northampton and 1.82 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 49 games, going 23W 15D 11L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Northampton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.69 PPG from 49 outings (26W 5D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Peterborough, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.71 PPG, Peterborough on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 12W 7D 6L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.48 points per game from 25 outings (12W 1D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.61 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Peterborough in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Early Season
Peterborough
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 23W 15D 11L in their last 49 games (1.71 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 26W 5D 18L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Peterborough away?
Northampton's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.72 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Northampton or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Peterborough in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Peterborough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Peterborough?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 56%, Peterborough 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Northampton) and 56% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Peterborough?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Northampton's recent matches and 48% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Northampton's recent games and 56% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Northampton defy the odds to beat Peterborough 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Peterborough 1-0 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.77 xG and Peterborough 1.82 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Peterborough landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.84 / defence 1.22 against Peterborough attack 1.31 / defence 0.74, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 15% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 62%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Northampton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 45%, Peterborough 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Peterborough's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.71 PPG, Peterborough 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.