Northampton 1-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bolton at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Northampton face Bolton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Northampton welcome Bolton to Sixfields Stadium in League One (matchday 32). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Northampton stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Northampton's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Bolton have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Bolton have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Northampton) versus 1.90 (Bolton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Northampton have won 0, Bolton 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Northampton 1–2 Bolton — a Bolton win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Northampton in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bolton in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Bolton 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 51% | Bolton 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 0.91 xG and Bolton 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.925 / defence 1.085 | Bolton attack 1.132 / defence 0.755. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.169. Bolton bring a tight defence (rating 0.755, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Northampton's projected output down. Data: built from Northampton's last 29 games and Bolton's last 74.
Result probabilities: Northampton 24% | Draw 27% | Bolton 49%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 4.19 | Draw 3.73 | Bolton 2.03. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bolton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Northampton 50% (last 10 home games) | Bolton 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Bolton | Competition: League One, matchday 32 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 24% | Draw 27% | Bolton 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Northampton 0.91 / Bolton 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.925 / def 1.085 | Bolton attack 1.132 / def 0.755 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Bolton (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bolton xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Northampton vs Bolton FAQs
What time does Northampton vs Bolton kick off?
Northampton vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Bolton?
Northampton 1 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Northampton vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Bolton part of?
Northampton vs Bolton is a League One fixture (matchday 32) (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 24% chance of winning, Bolton a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Northampton and Bolton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Northampton vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Northampton's attack at 0.93x the league average against Bolton's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Northampton's last 29 games and Bolton's last 74 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.73
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.35
1.44
Bolton xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
6%
17.61
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 13.7 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Northampton vs Bolton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Northampton and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Northampton and 1.44 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Northampton come into this having played 75 games, going 35W 18D 22L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.85 PPG from 75 outings (41W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.64 PPG, Bolton on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Northampton's home form reads 17W 9D 10L across their last 36 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.64 points per game from their last 36 away games (17W 8D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Northampton are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.51 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Bolton in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
Northampton (Home) vs Bolton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Northampton
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Northampton vs Bolton Form FAQs
What form are Northampton and Bolton in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 35W 18D 22L in their last 75 games (1.64 PPG), while Bolton have gone 41W 16D 18L in their last 75 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Bolton away?
Northampton's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.67 PPG; Bolton away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Northampton or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bolton in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 4 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Northampton's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Northampton
2
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Northampton vs Bolton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Bolton?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Northampton have won 1, Bolton have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Bolton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 January 2026: Bolton 0-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 50%, Bolton 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Northampton) and 36% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bolton in 42%; Bolton in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Northampton vs Bolton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Northampton and Bolton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Northampton's recent matches and 39% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Northampton and Bolton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Northampton's recent games and 36% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Bolton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Northampton's recent matches and 69% of Bolton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Northampton and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton and Bolton finished level at 1-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.91 xG and Bolton 1.44 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.93 / defence 1.08 against Bolton attack 1.13 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 24% | Draw 27% | Bolton 49%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 51%, Bolton 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.64 PPG, Bolton 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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