Mansfield Town 1-1 Birmingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Birmingham at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Birmingham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
One Call Stadium plays host to Mansfield Town versus Birmingham in League One (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time.
Current Form
Mansfield Town's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Mansfield Town's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Birmingham have collected 2.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Birmingham's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Birmingham arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 2.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Mansfield Town's last 10 home games and Birmingham's last 10 away games) — Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Birmingham in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Mansfield Town — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Birmingham — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 65% versus Birmingham 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 54% | Birmingham 47%). Note also that Birmingham surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Mansfield Town recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.24 xG and Birmingham 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.970 / defence 1.057 | Birmingham attack 1.210 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.232. Birmingham have an above-average attack rating of 1.210, which lifts their away xG to 1.58. Data: built from Mansfield Town's last 11 games and Birmingham's last 11.
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 30% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 45%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 3.34 | Draw 4.03 | Birmingham 2.21. Birmingham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Birmingham are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Birmingham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Mansfield Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Birmingham 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Birmingham | Competition: League One, matchday 14 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 13:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 30% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Mansfield Town 1.24 / Birmingham 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 0.970 / def 1.057 | Birmingham attack 1.210 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Birmingham (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Birmingham xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Birmingham FAQs
What time does Mansfield Town vs Birmingham kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Birmingham kicked off at 13:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?
Mansfield Town 1 - 1 Birmingham.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Birmingham being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Birmingham part of?
Mansfield Town vs Birmingham is a League One fixture (matchday 14) (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 30% chance of winning, Birmingham a 45% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Birmingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mansfield Town and Birmingham will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Mansfield Town vs Birmingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Birmingham's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Birmingham's attack (1.21x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from Mansfield Town's last 11 games and Birmingham's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Birmingham Win
30%
3.34
25%
4.03
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.81
1.58
Birmingham xG
3.34
30%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.2 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Mansfield Town vs Birmingham Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Birmingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 1.58 for Birmingham, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Birmingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mansfield Town's recent record stands at 31W 16D 10L from 57 games, a 1.91 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Birmingham, meanwhile, have gone 22W 12D 23L across 57 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Birmingham heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Mansfield Town have managed 15W 9D 4L from their last 28 home games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Birmingham's away record stands at 7W 5D 16L across their last 28 away games, a 0.93 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.37 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Birmingham's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.91 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Birmingham are on 1.26 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
Mansfield Town (Home) vs Birmingham (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Mansfield Town
Blended
Birmingham
Blended
❓ Mansfield Town vs Birmingham Form FAQs
What form are Mansfield Town and Birmingham in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 31W 16D 10L in their last 57 games (1.91 PPG), while Birmingham have gone 22W 12D 23L in their last 57 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Birmingham away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.93 PPG; Birmingham away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Mansfield Town and Birmingham, the earliest from October 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Mansfield Town
1
Draws
1
Birmingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Mansfield Town vs Birmingham H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Birmingham?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Mansfield Town have won 0, Birmingham have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Birmingham last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Birmingham 4-0 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Birmingham?
Birmingham have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Birmingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 61%, Birmingham 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Mansfield Town) and 46% (Birmingham).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Birmingham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Birmingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Mansfield Town vs Birmingham Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Mansfield Town and Birmingham matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Mansfield Town's games and 54% of Birmingham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Mansfield Town and Birmingham matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 46% of Birmingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Birmingham matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 64% of Birmingham's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mansfield Town and Birmingham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town and Birmingham finished level at 1-1 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.24 xG and Birmingham 1.58 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 0.97 / defence 1.06 against Birmingham attack 1.21 / defence 0.96, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 30% | Draw 25% | Birmingham 45%, with Birmingham to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 54%, Birmingham 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Birmingham's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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