Lincoln 0-0 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Wigan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
LNER Stadium plays host to Lincoln versus Wigan in League One, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 21 September 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Lincoln (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lincoln have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lincoln at LNER Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at LNER Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Wigan's overall League One record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Wigan have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wigan's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Lincoln, 1.70 for Wigan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lincoln, 2 for Wigan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–2 with Wigan winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Wigan half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 45% versus Wigan 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 41% | Wigan 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.63 xG and Wigan 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.204 / defence 0.980 | Wigan attack 1.197 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.215. Data: 51 Lincoln games / 51 Wigan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 24% | Wigan 34%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Wigan 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.43) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lincoln if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates are neutral: Lincoln 30% | Wigan 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Wigan | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 24% | Wigan 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Lincoln 1.63 / Wigan 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.204 / def 0.980 | Wigan attack 1.197 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.43
Wigan xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Wigan kick off?
Lincoln vs Wigan kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Wigan?
Lincoln 0 - 0 Wigan.
Where is Lincoln vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Wigan part of?
Lincoln vs Wigan is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 43% chance of winning, Wigan a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lincoln and Wigan will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Wigan?
Record (4 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 1 | Wigan 2W.
What form are Lincoln and Wigan in?
Lincoln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Wigan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.20x the league average against Wigan's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Wigan's attack (1.20x) against Lincoln's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.43.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
43%
2.35
24%
4.18
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Lincoln xG
Total xG
3.06
1.43
Wigan xG
2.35
43%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
24%
4.16
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
10%
9.78
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.43 for Wigan, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Lincoln have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 23W 15D 13L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lincoln, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wigan's form line: 22W 10D 19L from 51 games, 1.49 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Wigan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for Lincoln against 1.49 for Wigan. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lincoln have posted 1.60 PPG from 25 outings (11W 7D 7L).
On the road, Wigan have gone 7W 6D 12L from 25 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.49 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wigan's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lincoln are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.35 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Early Season
Wigan
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Wigan in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 23W 15D 13L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while Wigan have gone 22W 10D 19L in their last 51 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Wigan away?
Lincoln's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.60 PPG; Wigan away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Wigan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Wigan in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lincoln have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Wigan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lincoln
4
Draws
2
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Wigan?
From 8 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 2, Wigan have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Wigan last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wigan 0-1 Lincoln.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 40%, Wigan 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lincoln) and 56% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Wigan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Lincoln's recent matches and 68% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Wigan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lincoln's recent games and 56% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Wigan tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Wigan in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lincoln's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 7, as Lincoln and Wigan drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.63 xG and Wigan 1.43 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lincoln fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Wigan landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Wigan attack 1.20 / defence 1.03, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 43% | Draw 24% | Wigan 34%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 41%, Wigan 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Wigan's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lincoln 1.65 PPG, Wigan 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Wigan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.