Lincoln 1-1 Sheffield Wednesday – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sheffield Wednesday at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Sheffield Wednesday at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lincoln stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's home record at LNER Stadium: 4W 5D 1L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Sheffield Wednesday have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sheffield Wednesday, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sheffield Wednesday have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sheffield Wednesday are 0.70 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lincoln have won 1, Sheffield Wednesday 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 3–1 with Lincoln winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Sheffield Wednesday in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 57% versus Sheffield Wednesday 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 48% | Sheffield Wednesday 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 0.88 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.924 / defence 0.852 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.110 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.251. Sheffield Wednesday's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 58 Lincoln games / 60 Sheffield Wednesday games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 27% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 43%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sheffield Wednesday 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sheffield Wednesday at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sheffield Wednesday offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.06 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 60% | Sheffield Wednesday 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 27% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Lincoln 0.88 / Sheffield Wednesday 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.924 / def 0.852 | Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.110 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Sheffield Wednesday (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Sheffield Wednesday xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday kick off?
Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Lincoln 1 - 1 Sheffield Wednesday.
Where is Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday part of?
Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 27% chance of winning, Sheffield Wednesday a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sheffield Wednesday the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday?
Record (2 meetings): Lincoln 1W | Draws 1 | Sheffield Wednesday 0W.
What form are Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday in?
Lincoln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Sheffield Wednesday (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lincoln's attack rating (0.92) and Sheffield Wednesday's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sheffield Wednesday's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sheffield Wednesday Win
27%
3.66
30%
3.36
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.06
1.18
Sheffield Wednesday xG
3.66
27%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
11.97
18%
5.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.0 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.18 for Sheffield Wednesday, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lincoln come into this having played 58 games, going 18W 15D 25L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sheffield Wednesday sit at 1.81 PPG from 58 outings (30W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. The sample for Sheffield Wednesday is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sheffield Wednesday carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Lincoln — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lincoln's home form reads 8W 9D 11L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Sheffield Wednesday have taken 1.54 points per game from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lincoln are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Sheffield Wednesday are on 1.74 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
Sheffield Wednesday
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 18W 15D 25L in their last 58 games (1.19 PPG), while Sheffield Wednesday have gone 30W 15D 13L in their last 58 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Sheffield Wednesday away?
Sheffield Wednesday's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.18 PPG; Sheffield Wednesday away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Sheffield Wednesday been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Sheffield Wednesday in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lincoln's record when hosting Sheffield Wednesday specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Lincoln
3
Draws
0
Sheffield Wednesday
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday?
From 4 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 1, Sheffield Wednesday have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Sheffield Wednesday 1-1 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Sheffield Wednesday are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 54%, Sheffield Wednesday 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Lincoln) and 46% (Sheffield Wednesday).
On the defensive side: Sheffield Wednesday in 32%; Lincoln have failed to score in 36% of games; Sheffield Wednesday in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Sheffield Wednesday away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Sheffield Wednesday?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Lincoln's recent matches and 46% of Sheffield Wednesday's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Sheffield Wednesday usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lincoln's recent games and 46% of Sheffield Wednesday's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Sheffield Wednesday in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 16, as Lincoln and Sheffield Wednesday drew 1-1 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 0.88 xG and Sheffield Wednesday 1.18 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 0.92 / defence 0.85 against Sheffield Wednesday attack 1.11 / defence 0.73, drawn from 58/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 27% | Draw 30% | Sheffield Wednesday 43%, with Sheffield Wednesday to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 48%, Sheffield Wednesday 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Sheffield Wednesday's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sheffield Wednesday arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.