Lincoln 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lincoln at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lincoln host Burton Albion at LNER Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lincoln — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at LNER Stadium, Lincoln have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Burton Albion have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Burton Albion have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lincoln 1.20 PPG, Burton Albion 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Lincoln, 4 for Burton Albion and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 3–2 with Lincoln winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lincoln in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Burton Albion in-play and half-time data (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 46% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 42% | Burton Albion 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.22 xG and Burton Albion 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 1.005 / defence 0.957 | Burton Albion attack 0.788 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.190. Data: 78 Lincoln games / 78 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 27%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Burton Albion 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 50% | Burton Albion 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: LNER Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 43% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Lincoln 1.22 / Burton Albion 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 1.005 / def 0.957 | Burton Albion attack 0.788 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Burton Albion xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs Burton Albion kick off?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at LNER Stadium.
What was the final score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Lincoln 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Lincoln vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at LNER Stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs Burton Albion part of?
Lincoln vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 43% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Lincoln and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
Record (7 meetings): Lincoln 3W | Draws 0 | Burton Albion 4W.
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 1.00x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/78 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
43%
2.33
30%
3.30
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Lincoln xG
Total xG
2.11
0.90
Burton Albion xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
18%
5.70
8%
12.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.2 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lincoln and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Lincoln and 0.90 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 31W 24D 23L from 78 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 39L across 78 games — 0.96 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lincoln by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 16W 11D 11L from 38 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 8W 13D 17L across 38 trips, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.92 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 31W 24D 23L in their last 78 games (1.50 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 18W 21D 39L in their last 78 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or Burton Albion away?
Lincoln's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 1.55 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Lincoln or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lincoln and Burton Albion runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 22 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lincoln go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Dec 2022, when Burton Albion won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lincoln's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lincoln
0
Draws
5
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Lincoln have won 5, Burton Albion have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lincoln and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 22 January 2026, when Lincoln 2-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 45%, Burton Albion 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lincoln) and 47% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Lincoln keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lincoln have failed to score in 32% of games; Burton Albion in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Lincoln's recent matches and 47% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lincoln vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lincoln's recent games and 47% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lincoln and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat Lincoln 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Lincoln 0-1 at LNER Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lincoln 1.22 xG and Burton Albion 0.90 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lincoln attack 1.00 / defence 0.96 against Burton Albion attack 0.79 / defence 0.94, drawn from 78/78 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lincoln 43% | Draw 30% | Burton Albion 27%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lincoln 42%, Burton Albion 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lincoln's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.