Ipswich 1-1 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ipswich at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ipswich vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ipswich and Plymouth meet at Portman Road in League One, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 January 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ipswich have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ipswich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Portman Road, Ipswich have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Plymouth's overall League One record this term: 5W 4D 1L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Plymouth have gone 4W 6D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Ipswich, 1.90 for Plymouth — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Ipswich 1W, Plymouth 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Plymouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Ipswich goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).
Plymouth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 51% versus Plymouth 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 48% | Plymouth 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.39 xG and Plymouth 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.228 / defence 0.820 | Plymouth attack 1.090 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.120. Data: 71 Ipswich games / 72 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ipswich 45% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 27%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Plymouth 3.70. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ipswich if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ipswich 50% | Plymouth 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ipswich vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Portman Road • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Jan 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ipswich 45% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Ipswich 1.39 / Plymouth 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ipswich attack 1.228 / def 0.820 | Plymouth attack 1.090 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Ipswich (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Ipswich xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Plymouth xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ipswich vs Plymouth kick off?
Ipswich vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 January 2023 at Portman Road.
What was the final score in Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Ipswich 1 - 1 Plymouth.
Where is Ipswich vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at Portman Road.
What competition is Ipswich vs Plymouth part of?
Ipswich vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Ipswich a 45% chance of winning, Plymouth a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ipswich the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ipswich and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Ipswich vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Plymouth?
Record (3 meetings): Ipswich 1W | Draws 0 | Plymouth 2W.
What form are Ipswich and Plymouth in?
Ipswich (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Plymouth (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Ipswich's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Plymouth's attack (1.09x) against Ipswich's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ipswich Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.59
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Ipswich xG
Total xG
2.39
1.00
Plymouth xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
7%
15.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Ipswich and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.00 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Ipswich vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ipswich's recent record stands at 32W 24D 15L from 71 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Ipswich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Plymouth, meanwhile, have gone 40W 17D 14L across 71 games — 1.93 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Ipswich against 1.93 for Plymouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ipswich have managed 18W 13D 4L from 35 games — 1.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Plymouth's away record stands at 14W 13D 8L across 35 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ipswich are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.61 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Plymouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ipswich
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ipswich and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Ipswich have gone 32W 24D 15L in their last 71 games (1.69 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 40W 17D 14L in their last 71 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ipswich at home or Plymouth away?
Ipswich's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ipswich at home: 1.91 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Ipswich or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Plymouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Ipswich have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ipswich have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Plymouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ipswich
1
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ipswich and Plymouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Ipswich have won 3, Plymouth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ipswich and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Plymouth 0-2 Ipswich.
Who has won more matches between Ipswich and Plymouth?
Ipswich have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ipswich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ipswich 49%, Plymouth 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Ipswich) and 51% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Ipswich keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Plymouth in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ipswich home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ipswich play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ipswich's recent matches and 57% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ipswich vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Ipswich's recent games and 51% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ipswich and Plymouth tend to score early?
Ipswich have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ipswich and Plymouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Portman Road, Regular Season - 27, as Ipswich and Plymouth drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ipswich 1.39 xG and Plymouth 1.00 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ipswich attack 1.23 / defence 0.82 against Plymouth attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ipswich 45% | Draw 28% | Plymouth 27%, with Ipswich to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ipswich 48%, Plymouth 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ipswich's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ipswich 1.69 PPG, Plymouth 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.