Forest Green 0-3 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Forest Green at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Forest Green vs Plymouth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forest Green host Plymouth at The Bolt New Lawn in League One, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forest Green — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Forest Green have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The Bolt New Lawn, Forest Green have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Plymouth stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Plymouth's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Forest Green 1.00 PPG, Plymouth 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Forest Green in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forest Green 51% versus Plymouth 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forest Green 39% | Plymouth 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forest Green 1.66 xG and Plymouth 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forest Green attack 0.871 / defence 1.266 | Plymouth attack 1.035 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.013. Plymouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Forest Green's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Forest Green games / 50 Plymouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Forest Green 45% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 30%. Fair-value odds: Forest Green 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Plymouth 3.33. Forest Green hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.66 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Forest Green as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forest Green offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forest Green 50% | Plymouth 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forest Green vs Plymouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Bolt New Lawn • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forest Green 45% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Forest Green 1.66 / Plymouth 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Forest Green attack 0.871 / def 1.266 | Plymouth attack 1.035 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Forest Green (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Forest Green xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Plymouth xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forest Green vs Plymouth kick off?
Forest Green vs Plymouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at The Bolt New Lawn.
What was the final score in Forest Green vs Plymouth?
Forest Green 0 - 3 Plymouth.
Where is Forest Green vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Bolt New Lawn.
What competition is Forest Green vs Plymouth part of?
Forest Green vs Plymouth is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Forest Green vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives Forest Green a 45% chance of winning, Plymouth a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Forest Green the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forest Green vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Forest Green and Plymouth will score (BTTS).
Will Forest Green vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Plymouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Forest Green and Plymouth in?
Forest Green (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Plymouth (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Forest Green's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Plymouth's defensive record (1.33x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.66. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus Forest Green's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forest Green Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.06
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Forest Green xG
Total xG
2.99
1.33
Plymouth xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
19%
5.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forest Green vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Forest Green and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Forest Green and 1.33 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Forest Green vs Plymouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Forest Green come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 16D 9L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Forest Green, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Plymouth sit at 1.76 PPG from 49 outings (25W 11D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Forest Green on 1.80 PPG, Plymouth on 1.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Forest Green's home form reads 14W 4D 6L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Plymouth have taken 1.42 points per game from 24 outings (9W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forest Green come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forest Green are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.49 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Plymouth in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forest Green
Early Season
Plymouth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forest Green and Plymouth in coming into this match?
Forest Green have gone 24W 16D 9L in their last 49 games (1.80 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 25W 11D 13L in their last 49 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forest Green at home or Plymouth away?
Forest Green's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forest Green at home: 1.92 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Forest Green or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forest Green have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Plymouth in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Forest Green
0
Draws
2
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forest Green and Plymouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Forest Green have won 0, Plymouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Forest Green and Plymouth last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Plymouth 2-0 Forest Green.
Who has won more matches between Forest Green and Plymouth?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forest Green see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forest Green 33%, Plymouth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Forest Green) and 50% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: Forest Green keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forest Green home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forest Green play Plymouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Forest Green's recent matches and 58% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forest Green vs Plymouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Forest Green's recent games and 50% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forest Green and Plymouth tend to score early?
Forest Green have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Plymouth in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Plymouth run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Forest Green.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Forest Green 0-3 at The Bolt New Lawn, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forest Green 1.66 xG and Plymouth 1.33 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Forest Green fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Plymouth outscored their 1.33 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forest Green attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Plymouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.33, drawn from 3/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forest Green 45% | Draw 25% | Plymouth 30%, with Forest Green to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forest Green 39%, Plymouth 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forest Green's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Plymouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Forest Green 1.80 PPG, Plymouth 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Forest Green (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.