Exeter City 0-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Exeter City at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Exeter City host Northampton at St James Park in League One, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Exeter City have posted 5W 2D 3L at St James Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at St James Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Northampton — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Northampton have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Exeter City are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Northampton, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Exeter City.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 0–2 with Northampton winning.
It is worth noting that Northampton have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Exeter City in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Northampton in-play tendencies (75 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 43% versus Northampton 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 44% | Northampton 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.51 xG and Northampton 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 0.959 / defence 0.960 | Northampton attack 0.793 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.137. Data: 75 Exeter City games / 76 Northampton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Northampton 4.76. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Northampton lead the H2H ledger, but Exeter City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Exeter City are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 20% | Northampton 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Northampton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Exeter City 1.51 / Northampton 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 0.959 / def 0.960 | Northampton attack 0.793 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Northampton xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Northampton kick off?
Exeter City vs Northampton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Northampton?
Exeter City 0 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Exeter City vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Northampton part of?
Exeter City vs Northampton is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 53% chance of winning, Northampton a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Exeter City and Northampton will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Northampton?
Record (7 meetings): Exeter City 1W | Draws 2 | Northampton 4W.
What form are Exeter City and Northampton in?
Exeter City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Northampton (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Exeter City's attack rating (0.96) and Northampton's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Northampton's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.85
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.38
0.86
Northampton xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
5%
21.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 12.1 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.2 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.86 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 26W 16D 33L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Northampton's form line: 21W 21D 33L from 75 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.25 PPG, Northampton on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.47 PPG from 36 outings (15W 8D 13L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 8W 10D 18L from 36 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Exeter City are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.03 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 75 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Northampton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Northampton in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 26W 16D 33L in their last 75 games (1.25 PPG), while Northampton have gone 21W 21D 33L in their last 75 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Northampton away?
Exeter City's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.47 PPG; Northampton away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Northampton in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Exeter City and Northampton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Exeter City's record when hosting Northampton specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Exeter City
3
Draws
4
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Northampton?
From 8 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 1, Northampton have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Northampton last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Exeter City 0-0 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Northampton?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 44%, Northampton 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Exeter City) and 50% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Northampton in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Northampton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Exeter City's recent matches and 53% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Northampton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Exeter City's recent games and 50% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Exeter City and Northampton tend to score early?
Exeter City have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Northampton in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Exeter City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City and Northampton finished level at 0-0 at St James Park, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.51 xG and Northampton 0.86 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Exeter City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Northampton landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 75/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 53% | Draw 26% | Northampton 21%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 44%, Northampton 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (75 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Northampton's trading profile (75 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.25 PPG, Northampton 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.