Exeter City 1-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Exeter City at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Exeter City vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 43 as Exeter City welcome Derby to St James Park. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 18 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Exeter City stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Exeter City's home record at St James Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Derby — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in League One this season, Derby have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Exeter City 1.40 PPG, Derby 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Exeter City, 0 for Derby and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Exeter City trading profile (88 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Derby trading profile (88 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 51% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 46% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.60 xG and Derby 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.034 / defence 0.951 | Derby attack 1.023 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.118. Data: 42 Exeter City games / 42 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 49% | Draw 26% | Derby 25%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Derby 4.00. Exeter City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Exeter City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 40% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 43 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 49% | Draw 26% | Derby 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Exeter City 1.60 / Derby 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.034 / def 0.951 | Derby attack 1.023 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.118 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Derby xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Derby kick off?
Exeter City vs Derby kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 April 2023 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Derby?
Exeter City 1 - 2 Derby.
Where is Exeter City vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Derby part of?
Exeter City vs Derby is a Regular Season - 43 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 49% chance of winning, Derby a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Exeter City and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Derby?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 0W.
What form are Exeter City and Derby in?
Exeter City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Derby (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Exeter City's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Exeter City's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.86
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.69
1.09
Derby xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
16%
6.08
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Exeter City and 1.09 for Derby, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 88 outings, Exeter City have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 37W 26D 25L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 33W 25D 30L from 88 games, 1.41 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Exeter City on 1.56 PPG, Derby on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Exeter City have posted 1.82 PPG from 44 outings (23W 11D 10L).
On the road, Derby have gone 10W 13D 21L from 44 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Exeter City are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.23 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 88 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Derby in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 37W 26D 25L in their last 88 games (1.56 PPG), while Derby have gone 33W 25D 30L in their last 88 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Derby away?
Exeter City's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 1.82 PPG; Derby away: 0.98 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Derby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Exeter City and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Feb 2024, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Exeter City's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Exeter City
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2024, when Exeter City 0-3 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 50%, Derby 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Exeter City) and 36% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 30% of games; Derby in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Exeter City's recent matches and 46% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Exeter City's recent games and 36% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Derby defy the odds to beat Exeter City 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Exeter City 1-2 at St James Park, Regular Season - 43, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.60 xG and Derby 1.09 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derby outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.03 / defence 0.95 against Derby attack 1.02 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 49% | Draw 26% | Derby 25%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Derby win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 46%, Derby 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Derby's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Exeter City 1.56 PPG, Derby 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Exeter City (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.