Derby 4-0 Forest Green – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derby vs Forest Green fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Derby host Forest Green at Pride Park Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 December 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Derby — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby at Pride Park Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Forest Green have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Forest Green, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Forest Green have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Derby at 1.40 PPG versus Forest Green's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Derby register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Forest Green in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Forest Green trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Forest Green 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 39% | Forest Green 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.73 xG and Forest Green 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.990 / defence 1.020 | Forest Green attack 0.869 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.260 / away 1.168. Forest Green bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Derby's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Derby games / 21 Forest Green games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 53% | Draw 25% | Forest Green 22%. Fair-value odds: Derby 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Forest Green 4.55. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Derby at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Derby 60% | Forest Green 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Forest Green | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Dec 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 53% | Draw 25% | Forest Green 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Derby 1.73 / Forest Green 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.990 / def 1.020 | Forest Green attack 0.869 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.260 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Derby (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Derby xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Forest Green xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Forest Green kick off?
Derby vs Forest Green kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 17 December 2022 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Forest Green?
Derby 4 - 0 Forest Green.
Where is Derby vs Forest Green being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Forest Green part of?
Derby vs Forest Green is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Forest Green?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 53% chance of winning, Forest Green a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Forest Green?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Derby and Forest Green will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Forest Green have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Forest Green?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Derby and Forest Green in?
Derby (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Forest Green (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.99x the league average against Forest Green's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Forest Green's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.05
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Derby xG
Total xG
2.76
1.03
Forest Green xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
18%
5.62
Win to Nil
19%
5.30
4%
25.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Forest Green?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Derby and Forest Green expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Derby and 1.03 for Forest Green, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Forest Green?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Derby come into this having played 66 games, going 22W 20D 24L for 1.30 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Forest Green sit at 1.53 PPG from 66 outings (27W 20D 19L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Forest Green is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.30 PPG, Forest Green on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Derby's home form reads 16W 9D 7L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Derby are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Forest Green have taken 1.34 points per game from 32 outings (9W 16D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Forest Green are on 1.39 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Forest Green
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Forest Green in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 22W 20D 24L in their last 66 games (1.30 PPG), while Forest Green have gone 27W 20D 19L in their last 66 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Forest Green away?
Derby's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.78 PPG; Forest Green away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Derby or Forest Green been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Forest Green in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Forest Green runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Derby
0
Draws
0
Forest Green
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Forest Green?
From 2 meetings on record, Derby have won 2, Forest Green have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Forest Green last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2023, when Forest Green 0-2 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Forest Green?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Forest Green are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 59%, Forest Green 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Derby) and 47% (Forest Green).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Forest Green away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Forest Green?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Derby's games and 69% of Forest Green's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Derby vs Forest Green usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Derby's recent games and 47% of Forest Green's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Forest Green tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Forest Green in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Forest Green.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Forest Green 4-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.73 xG and Forest Green 1.03 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Forest Green landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Forest Green attack 0.87 / defence 1.38, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 53% | Draw 25% | Forest Green 22%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 39%, Forest Green 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Forest Green's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.30 PPG, Forest Green 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Forest Green (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.