Crawley Town 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Wigan at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Wigan.

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Fixture Analysis

Crawley Town welcome Wigan to Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off is Tuesday 18 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Crawley Town have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Wigan — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Wigan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 0.90 PPG versus Wigan's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Crawley Town have won 0, Wigan 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended Crawley Town 0–1 Wigan — a Wigan win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

Wigan in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 55% versus Wigan 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Wigan 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.03 xG and Wigan 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.983 / defence 1.168 | Wigan attack 0.889 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.195. Wigan bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Crawley Town's projected output down. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 30 games and Wigan's last 75.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 30% | Draw 30% | Wigan 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.36 | Draw 3.35 | Wigan 2.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Wigan as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 60% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 30% (last 10 away games).

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