Crawley Town 1-1 Stockport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Stockport County encounter.

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Analysis

Stockport County make the trip to Broadfield Stadium to face Crawley Town in League One (matchday 6). The match kicks off on Saturday 14 September 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Crawley Town's record over their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Stockport County have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stockport County have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Stockport County are 0.50 PPG clear of Crawley Town over their recent games (2.50 vs 2.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Crawley Town, 1 for Stockport County and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2024, ended Crawley Town 1–1 Stockport County — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Crawley Town half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Stockport County 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 58% | Stockport County 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.95 xG and Stockport County 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.792 / defence 1.236 | Stockport County attack 1.009 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.314 / away 1.171. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.236 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stockport County's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 4 games and Stockport County's last 4.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 25% | Draw 26% | Stockport County 49%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.08 | Draw 3.78 | Stockport County 2.04. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stockport County if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — low conviction — though recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Stockport County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Stockport County 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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