Crawley Town 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charlton at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Crawley Town vs Charlton encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Crawley Town welcome Charlton to Broadfield Stadium in League One (matchday 24). Kick-off is Tuesday 11 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Crawley Town have posted 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Charlton's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Charlton's 2.30 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Crawley Town, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2024, ended Crawley Town 2–1 Charlton — a Crawley Town win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Charlton 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 56% | Charlton 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.02 xG and Charlton 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.887 / defence 1.237 | Charlton attack 1.101 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.240 / away 1.120. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.237 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 35 games and Charlton's last 81.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 25% | Draw 27% | Charlton 48%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 4.06 | Draw 3.68 | Charlton 2.07. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 50% (last 10 away games).

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