Cheltenham 1-1 Wigan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wigan at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Wigan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Wigan travel to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to take on Cheltenham in League One (matchday 17). The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cheltenham stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Cheltenham have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Wigan — last 10 games: 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Wigan's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Wigan are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cheltenham, 1 for Wigan and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 29 Jan 2022, ended Cheltenham 0–0 Wigan — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Wigan in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 33% versus Wigan 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 43% | Wigan 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 0.94 xG and Wigan 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.642 / defence 1.159 | Wigan attack 1.017 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.151. Cheltenham's attack rating of 0.642 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Cheltenham's last 61 games and Wigan's last 16.
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Wigan 46%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.91 | Draw 3.48 | Wigan 2.19. Wigan hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Wigan are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wigan offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cheltenham 40% (last 10 home games) | Wigan 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Wigan | Competition: League One, matchday 17 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Wigan 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Cheltenham 0.94 / Wigan 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.642 / def 1.159 | Wigan attack 1.017 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Wigan (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Wigan xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cheltenham vs Wigan FAQs
What time does Cheltenham vs Wigan kick off?
Cheltenham vs Wigan kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Wigan.
Where is Cheltenham vs Wigan being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Wigan part of?
Cheltenham vs Wigan is a League One fixture (matchday 17) (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 26% chance of winning, Wigan a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Wigan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cheltenham and Wigan will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Cheltenham vs Wigan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cheltenham's attack at 0.64x the league average against Wigan's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wigan's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cheltenham's last 61 games and Wigan's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wigan Win
26%
3.91
29%
3.48
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.30
1.36
Wigan xG
3.91
26%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
7%
15.19
18%
5.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.6 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cheltenham vs Wigan Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Wigan expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.36 for Wigan, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Wigan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 16W 14D 31L from 61 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five.
Wigan, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 28L across 61 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.02 PPG, Wigan on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 9W 9D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wigan's away record stands at 8W 8D 14L across their last 30 away games, a 1.07 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cheltenham are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Wigan are on 1.03 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Wigan
Blended
Cheltenham (Home) vs Wigan (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cheltenham
Blended
Wigan
Blended
❓ Cheltenham vs Wigan Form FAQs
What form are Cheltenham and Wigan in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 16W 14D 31L in their last 61 games (1.02 PPG), while Wigan have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Wigan away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.20 PPG; Wigan away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 23 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Wigan specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cheltenham
3
Draws
1
Wigan
Recent Meetings
❓ Cheltenham vs Wigan H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Wigan?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cheltenham have won 0, Wigan have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Wigan last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 February 2024: Wigan 1-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Wigan?
Wigan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cheltenham see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Wigan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 37%, Wigan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cheltenham) and 47% (Wigan).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Wigan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cheltenham vs Wigan Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cheltenham and Wigan matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 60% of Wigan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cheltenham and Wigan matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cheltenham's recent games and 47% of Wigan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Wigan matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 57% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 80% of Wigan's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Wigan share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 17, as Cheltenham and Wigan drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 0.94 xG and Wigan 1.36 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.64 / defence 1.16 against Wigan attack 1.02 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 26% | Draw 29% | Wigan 46%, with Wigan to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 43%, Wigan 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Wigan's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.02 PPG, Wigan 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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