Cheltenham 2-1 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cheltenham vs Sunderland encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jonny-Rocks Stadium plays host to Cheltenham versus Sunderland in League One, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Tuesday 8 February 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cheltenham have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cheltenham at Jonny-Rocks Stadium this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cheltenham are significantly better at Jonny-Rocks Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Sunderland's overall League One record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League One this season, Sunderland have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sunderland are 0.90 PPG clear of Cheltenham in recent League One fixtures (1.50 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sunderland in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cheltenham lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2021, ended 0–5 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Cheltenham — key trading statistics (29 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 28% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sunderland — key trading statistics (29 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 66% versus Sunderland 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 48% | Sunderland 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.47 xG and Sunderland 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.804 / defence 1.203 | Sunderland attack 0.961 / defence 1.670. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.271. Sunderland bring a strong defensive rating of 1.670 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Cheltenham games / 30 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 38% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 38%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Sunderland 2.63. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 60% | Sunderland 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Feb 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 38% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Cheltenham 1.47 / Sunderland 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.804 / def 1.203 | Sunderland attack 0.961 / def 1.670 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Sunderland xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Sunderland kick off?
Cheltenham vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 8 February 2022 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Sunderland?
Cheltenham 2 - 1 Sunderland.
Where is Cheltenham vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Sunderland part of?
Cheltenham vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 38% chance of winning, Sunderland a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cheltenham and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Sunderland?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Sunderland in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cheltenham's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.67x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.96x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 29/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
38%
2.67
25%
4.01
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.94
1.47
Sunderland xG
2.67
38%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.47 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 7W 12D 10L from 29 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-D in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 15W 6D 8L across 29 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-D-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sunderland by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cheltenham heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 5W 6D 4L from 15 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 5W 5D 5L across 15 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sunderland's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cheltenham are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.79 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 7W 12D 10L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 15W 6D 8L in their last 29 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Sunderland away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.40 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Sunderland in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cheltenham
0
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 1, Sunderland have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2022, when Cheltenham 2-1 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 60%, Sunderland 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for Cheltenham and 73% for Sunderland. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cheltenham have failed to score in 27% of games; Sunderland in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Cheltenham's games and 60% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Cheltenham's matches and 73% of Sunderland's.
Do Cheltenham and Sunderland tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cheltenham defy the odds to beat Sunderland 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Sunderland 2-1 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.47 xG and Sunderland 1.47 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Sunderland attack 0.96 / defence 1.67, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 38% | Draw 25% | Sunderland 38%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 48%, Sunderland 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (29 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Sunderland's trading profile (29 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with Cheltenham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cheltenham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.