Cheltenham 1-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Charlton travel to Jonny-Rocks Stadium to take on Cheltenham. The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cheltenham stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cheltenham have posted 4W 3D 3L at Jonny-Rocks Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Cheltenham) versus 1.40 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cheltenham, 0 for Charlton and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Cheltenham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Charlton in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cheltenham 68% and Charlton 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 52% | Charlton 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.13 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.866 / defence 1.412 | Charlton attack 0.700 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.286. Data: 25 Cheltenham games / 25 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Charlton 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Cheltenham 50% | Charlton 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jonny-Rocks Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Cheltenham 1.13 / Charlton 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.866 / def 1.412 | Charlton attack 0.700 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Charlton xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Charlton kick off?
Cheltenham vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Cheltenham 1 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Cheltenham vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Jonny-Rocks Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Charlton part of?
Cheltenham vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 33% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cheltenham and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Charlton?
Record (1 meetings): Cheltenham 1W | Draws 0 | Charlton 0W.
What form are Cheltenham and Charlton in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.87) and Charlton's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Cheltenham's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
33%
3.06
28%
3.56
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.40
1.27
Charlton xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
9%
10.92
13%
7.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.27 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 25 outings, Cheltenham have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 7W 9D 9L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 8W 5D 12L from 25 games, 1.16 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cheltenham on 1.20 PPG, Charlton on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cheltenham have posted 1.58 PPG from 12 outings (5W 4D 3L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 3W 2D 7L from 12 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cheltenham are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cheltenham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Charlton in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Charlton have gone 8W 5D 12L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Charlton away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.58 PPG; Charlton away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Cheltenham or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cheltenham have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Charlton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cheltenham's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cheltenham
2
Draws
2
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Charlton?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 2, Charlton have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 58%, Charlton 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cheltenham) and 58% (Charlton).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Cheltenham's games and 67% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cheltenham vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cheltenham's recent games and 58% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Charlton tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Charlton in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cheltenham and Charlton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jonny-Rocks Stadium, Regular Season - 28, as Cheltenham and Charlton drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.13 xG and Charlton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.87 / defence 1.41 against Charlton attack 0.70 / defence 1.15, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 33% | Draw 28% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 52%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.20 PPG, Charlton 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.