Cheltenham 0-0 Accrington ST – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Accrington ST fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Accrington ST make the trip to Completely-Suzuki Stadium to face Cheltenham in League One, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cheltenham have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Completely-Suzuki Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cheltenham are significantly better at Completely-Suzuki Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Accrington ST (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Accrington ST have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Cheltenham, 0.90 for Accrington ST — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Cheltenham 1W, Accrington ST 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Accrington ST winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cheltenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Accrington ST goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 53% versus Accrington ST 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 51% | Accrington ST 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.42 xG and Accrington ST 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 0.831 / defence 1.008 | Accrington ST attack 0.718 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.145. Accrington ST bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Cheltenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Cheltenham games / 73 Accrington ST games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 50% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 21%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Accrington ST 4.76. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 30% | Accrington ST 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Accrington ST | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 50% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Cheltenham 1.42 / Accrington ST 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 0.831 / def 1.008 | Accrington ST attack 0.718 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Accrington ST xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Accrington ST kick off?
Cheltenham vs Accrington ST kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Cheltenham 0 - 0 Accrington ST.
Where is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST part of?
Cheltenham vs Accrington ST is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 50% chance of winning, Accrington ST a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cheltenham and Accrington ST will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Accrington ST have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
Record (3 meetings): Cheltenham 1W | Draws 1 | Accrington ST 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Accrington ST in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Accrington ST (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cheltenham's attack rating (0.83) and Accrington ST's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Accrington ST's attack (0.72x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 74/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
50%
1.99
28%
3.52
21%
4.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.25
0.83
Accrington ST xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.70
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
19.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.4 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Accrington ST expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cheltenham and 0.83 for Accrington ST, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Accrington ST?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham's recent record stands at 21W 21D 31L from 73 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Accrington ST, meanwhile, have gone 23W 18D 32L across 73 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.19 for Accrington ST. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cheltenham have managed 15W 9D 12L from 36 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Accrington ST's away record stands at 8W 7D 21L across 36 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cheltenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Accrington ST are on 1.18 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Accrington ST
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Accrington ST in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 21W 21D 31L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Accrington ST have gone 23W 18D 32L in their last 73 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Accrington ST away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.50 PPG; Accrington ST away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Accrington ST — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cheltenham
3
Draws
2
Accrington ST
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
From 8 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 3, Accrington ST have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Accrington ST last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Cheltenham and Accrington ST?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 53%, Accrington ST 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cheltenham) and 50% (Accrington ST).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Accrington ST in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Accrington ST away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Accrington ST?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 42% of Accrington ST's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Accrington ST usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cheltenham's recent games and 50% of Accrington ST's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Accrington ST tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Accrington ST in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cheltenham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham and Accrington ST finished level at 0-0 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.42 xG and Accrington ST 0.83 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cheltenham fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Accrington ST landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 0.83 / defence 1.01 against Accrington ST attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 50% | Draw 28% | Accrington ST 21%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 51%, Accrington ST 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Accrington ST's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.15 PPG, Accrington ST 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Accrington ST (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.