Charlton 0-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Charlton face Mansfield Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Charlton welcome Mansfield Town to The Valley in League One (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Charlton — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Charlton's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mansfield Town stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
When travelling, Mansfield Town have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 1.00 PPG versus Mansfield Town's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Charlton's games and 60% of Mansfield Town's (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Mansfield Town's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Charlton in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 67% and Mansfield Town 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Mansfield Town 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charlton surrender their half-time lead 58% of the time, while Mansfield Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 44% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.37 xG and Mansfield Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.962 / defence 1.095 | Mansfield Town attack 0.914 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.097. Data: built from Charlton's last 64 games and Mansfield Town's last 17.
Result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 30%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.32 | Draw 3.72 | Mansfield Town 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, matchday 20 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 14 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 43% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Charlton 1.37 / Mansfield Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.962 / def 1.095 | Mansfield Town attack 0.914 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Charlton (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mansfield Town xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Mansfield Town FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Charlton vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 14 December 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Charlton 0 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Charlton vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Mansfield Town part of?
Charlton vs Mansfield Town is a League One fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 43% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Charlton and Mansfield Town will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Charlton vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.96) and Mansfield Town's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 64 games and Mansfield Town's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.72
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.47
1.10
Mansfield Town xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
8%
13.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Mansfield Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Charlton and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Charlton and 1.10 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Charlton's recent record stands at 16W 25D 22L from 63 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 15L across 63 games — 1.75 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charlton heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 10W 11D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 15W 6D 9L across their last 30 away games, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.78 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Mansfield Town in 63%.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
Charlton (Home) vs Mansfield Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Blended
Mansfield Town
Blended
❓ Charlton vs Mansfield Town Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 16W 25D 22L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 31W 17D 15L in their last 63 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.37 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2024. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Mansfield Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Mansfield Town?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 1, Mansfield Town have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Charlton and Mansfield Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2025: Mansfield Town 1-2 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Mansfield Town?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Charlton at 73%, Mansfield Town at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Charlton) and 57% (Mansfield Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Mansfield Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Mansfield Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Charlton's games and 67% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Charlton and Mansfield Town matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Charlton's matches and 57% of Mansfield Town's.
Do Charlton and Mansfield Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Charlton's recent matches and 80% of Mansfield Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Charlton's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Valley, Regular Season - 20, as Charlton and Mansfield Town drew 0-0 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.37 xG and Mansfield Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Charlton fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.96 / defence 1.09 against Mansfield Town attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 64/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 43% | Draw 27% | Mansfield Town 30%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 48%, Mansfield Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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