Charlton 2-0 Crewe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Charlton take on Crewe.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Crewe make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 0W 1D 3L across 4 League One fixtures this term — 0.25 PPG. Last five: D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Crewe have collected 0.25 PPG across 4 League One outings this season: 0W 1D 3L. Last five: D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Crewe have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.25 PPG for Charlton against 0.25 for Crewe. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Crewe — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 50% versus Crewe 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Charlton 50% | Crewe 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.82 xG and Crewe 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.684 / defence 1.149 | Crewe attack 0.632 / defence 1.241. League average goals — home 0.961 / away 0.976. Charlton's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Crewe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.241 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Charlton games / 4 Crewe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 36% | Crewe 29%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.86 | Draw 2.78 | Crewe 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Crewe's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.52 combined xG gives a 20% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Crewe 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Crewe | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 35% | Draw 36% | Crewe 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Charlton 0.82 / Crewe 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.684 / def 1.149 | Crewe attack 0.632 / def 1.241 | league avg home 0.961 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Crewe xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Crewe kick off?
Charlton vs Crewe kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Crewe?
Charlton 2 - 0 Crewe.
Where is Charlton vs Crewe being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Crewe part of?
Charlton vs Crewe is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Crewe?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 35% chance of winning, Crewe a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Crewe?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Charlton and Crewe will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Crewe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Crewe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and Crewe in?
Charlton (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L. Crewe (all comps): 0W-1D-3L in 4 | 0.25 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.25 | L5 D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Charlton's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Crewe's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Crewe's attack (0.63x) against Charlton's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 23.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.86
36%
2.76
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.8%
Home win
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.52
0.71
Crewe xG
2.86
35%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.53
72%
BTTS No
1.40
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
17%
5.81
13%
7.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.8 | 15.4 | 5.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.8 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Crewe?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.4%.
How many goals are Charlton and Crewe expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Charlton and 0.71 for Crewe, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Crewe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Charlton have picked up 0.25 PPG on a 0W 1D 3L record — D-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Crewe's form line: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games, 0.25 PPG, last five D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Crewe, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.25 PPG for Charlton against 0.25 for Crewe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Crewe are on 0.25 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crewe in 25%.
Last 4 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Crewe
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Crewe in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 games (0.25 PPG), while Crewe have gone 0W 1D 3L in their last 4 (0.25 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
0
Draws
1
Crewe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Crewe?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Crewe have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Crewe last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2022, when Crewe 2-1 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Crewe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 50%, Crewe 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Charlton and 0% for Crewe.
On the defensive side: Charlton have failed to score in 50% of games; Crewe in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Crewe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Crewe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Charlton's recent matches and 25% of Crewe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Crewe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Charlton's recent games and 0% of Crewe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Crewe tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Crewe in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Crewe.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Crewe 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.82 xG and Crewe 0.71 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.68 / defence 1.15 against Crewe attack 0.63 / defence 1.24, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 35% | Draw 36% | Crewe 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Charlton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 50%, Crewe 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Crewe's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 75% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 0.25 PPG, Crewe 0.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.