Charlton 3-2 Carlisle – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charlton at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Carlisle encounter.

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Full Analysis

The Valley plays host to Charlton versus Carlisle in League One (matchday 37). Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Charlton have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Charlton's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Carlisle's record over their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Carlisle have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Form favours the hosts. Charlton's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Carlisle's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Charlton's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) — Charlton have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Carlisle in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Charlton 1–1 Carlisle — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 83 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).

Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 83 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 66% versus Carlisle 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 53% | Carlisle 42%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.74 xG and Carlisle 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.982 / defence 1.099 | Carlisle attack 0.786 / defence 1.330. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.209. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.330 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.04. Data: built from Charlton's last 83 games and Carlisle's last 35.

Result probabilities: Charlton 54% | Draw 24% | Carlisle 23%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.86 | Draw 4.22 | Carlisle 4.40. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Charlton 70% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 60% (last 10 away games).

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