Charlton 2-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cambridge United travel to The Valley to take on Charlton in League One (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Charlton stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Charlton have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Cambridge United have recorded 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.30 (Cambridge United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Charlton hold a clear advantage across the 6 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Cambridge United and 3 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Apr 2024, ended Charlton 1–1 Cambridge United — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Charlton an edge — 3 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 64% versus Cambridge United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.45 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.862 / defence 0.973 | Cambridge United attack 0.809 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.161. Cambridge United's defence rating of 1.318 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Charlton's last 66 games and Cambridge United's last 66.
Result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.02 | Draw 3.75 | Cambridge United 4.20. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Charlton 3 wins from 6 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Charlton 60% (last 10 home games) | Cambridge United 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, matchday 22 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Charlton 1.45 / Cambridge United 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.862 / def 0.973 | Cambridge United attack 0.809 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Charlton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cambridge United xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United FAQs
What time does Charlton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Charlton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Charlton 2 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Charlton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cambridge United part of?
Charlton vs Cambridge United is a League One fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 50% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and Cambridge United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Charlton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Charlton's last 66 games and Cambridge United's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.75
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.36
0.92
Cambridge United xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Charlton and 0.92 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 26D 22L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Cambridge United's form line: 16W 17D 33L from 66 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.21 PPG, Cambridge United on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.41 PPG from their last 32 home games (11W 12D 9L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 4W 7D 21L from their last 32 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.89 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
Charlton (Home) vs Cambridge United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Charlton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United Form FAQs
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 18W 26D 22L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 16W 17D 33L in their last 66 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cambridge United away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from December 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Charlton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Charlton have won 5, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cambridge United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 69%, Cambridge United 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charlton) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Charlton vs Cambridge United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Charlton and Cambridge United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Charlton's recent matches and 34% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Charlton and Cambridge United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cambridge United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Charlton's recent matches and 69% of Cambridge United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cambridge United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cambridge United 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.45 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cambridge United's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.21 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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