Carlisle 2-1 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port Vale at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Port Vale encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brunton Park plays host to Carlisle versus Port Vale in League One (matchday 26). Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Carlisle (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Carlisle's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Port Vale have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Port Vale have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Port Vale are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Port Vale edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Carlisle 0–1 Port Vale — a Port Vale win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Carlisle half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Port Vale half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 45% versus Port Vale 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 36% | Port Vale 49%). Note also that Port Vale surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Carlisle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.99 xG and Port Vale 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.672 / defence 1.163 | Port Vale attack 0.848 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.122. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.672 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Data: built from Carlisle's last 24 games and Port Vale's last 69.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 31% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 37%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.21 | Draw 3.17 | Port Vale 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Carlisle's last 10 home games and Port Vale's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Carlisle 40% (last 10 home games) | Port Vale 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, matchday 26 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 January 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 31% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Carlisle 0.99 / Port Vale 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.672 / def 1.163 | Port Vale attack 0.848 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.365 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Port Vale xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Port Vale kick off?
Carlisle vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Monday 1 January 2024 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Carlisle 2 - 1 Port Vale.
Where is Carlisle vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Port Vale part of?
Carlisle vs Port Vale is a League One fixture (matchday 26) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 31% chance of winning, Port Vale a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Carlisle and Port Vale will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Carlisle vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Carlisle's attack rating (0.67) and Port Vale's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.85x) against Carlisle's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 24 games and Port Vale's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
31%
3.21
32%
3.17
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.09
1.11
Port Vale xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 13.7 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.5 | 7.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.11 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Port Vale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Carlisle's recent record stands at 23W 23D 23L from 69 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
Port Vale, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 33L across 69 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Carlisle against 1.13 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 13W 13D 9L from their last 35 home games — 1.49 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port Vale's away record stands at 8W 10D 17L across their last 35 away games, a 0.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carlisle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.04 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
Carlisle (Home) vs Port Vale (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Blended
Port Vale
Blended
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 23W 23D 23L in their last 69 games (1.33 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 21W 15D 33L in their last 69 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Port Vale away?
Carlisle's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.49 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carlisle have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Carlisle
2
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Port Vale?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 2, Port Vale have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Port Vale last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 46%, Port Vale 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Carlisle) and 54% (Port Vale).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Carlisle have failed to score in 31% of games; Port Vale in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Port Vale Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Port Vale matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Carlisle's recent matches and 51% of Port Vale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Port Vale matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Carlisle's recent games and 54% of Port Vale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Port Vale matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Carlisle's recent matches and 66% of Port Vale's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carlisle defy the odds to beat Port Vale 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle beat Port Vale 2-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 26, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.99 xG and Port Vale 1.11 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carlisle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.67 / defence 1.16 against Port Vale attack 0.85 / defence 1.07, drawn from 24/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 31% | Draw 32% | Port Vale 37%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Carlisle win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 36%, Port Vale 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (69 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (69 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.33 PPG, Port Vale 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carlisle win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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