Cambridge United 0-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambridge United face Stevenage.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cambridge United and Stevenage meet at Cledara Abbey Stadium in League One (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 4 March 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Cambridge United (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Cambridge United have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stevenage have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Stevenage have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Stevenage edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2024, ended Cambridge United 2–0 Stevenage — a Cambridge United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Cambridge United half-time and goal-timing data (last 79 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

Stevenage half-time and goal-timing data (last 79 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 40% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 40% | Stevenage 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.07 xG and Stevenage 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.933 / defence 1.102 | Stevenage attack 0.730 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.186. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 79 games and Stevenage's last 79.

Result probabilities: Cambridge United 37% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.68 | Draw 3.18 | Stevenage 3.20. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Cambridge United's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 60% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 20% (last 10 away games).

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