Burton Albion 0-4 Leyton Orient – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Burton Albion (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burton Albion face Leyton Orient.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Leyton Orient travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 November 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 2D 4L at Pirelli Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Leyton Orient have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Leyton Orient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leyton Orient's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Burton Albion have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Burton Albion, 0 for Leyton Orient and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Leyton Orient trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus Leyton Orient 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Leyton Orient 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.46 xG and Leyton Orient 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.775 / defence 1.095 | Leyton Orient attack 1.108 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.070. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Leyton Orient bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Burton Albion games / 63 Leyton Orient games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 34%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Leyton Orient 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Burton Albion offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 30% | Leyton Orient 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Nov 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 41% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Burton Albion 1.46 / Leyton Orient 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.775 / def 1.095 | Leyton Orient attack 1.108 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.070 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Leyton Orient xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient kick off?
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 November 2025 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
Burton Albion 0 - 4 Leyton Orient.
Where is Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient part of?
Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 41% chance of winning, Leyton Orient a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Burton Albion and Leyton Orient will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Leyton Orient?
Record (4 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 2 | Leyton Orient 0W.
What form are Burton Albion and Leyton Orient in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Leyton Orient (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.78) and Leyton Orient's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Leyton Orient's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
41%
2.44
25%
3.93
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.75
1.30
Leyton Orient xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
11%
8.94
8%
12.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Leyton Orient expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.30 for Leyton Orient, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Burton Albion come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 18D 27L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Leyton Orient sit at 1.63 PPG from 62 outings (30W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Leyton Orient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leyton Orient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Burton Albion's home form reads 9W 7D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Leyton Orient have taken 1.45 points per game from 31 outings (14W 3D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Leyton Orient are on 1.58 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Leyton Orient in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Leyton Orient
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Leyton Orient in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Leyton Orient have gone 30W 11D 21L in their last 62 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Leyton Orient away?
Leyton Orient's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.10 PPG; Leyton Orient away: 1.45 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Leyton Orient been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Leyton Orient in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Leyton Orient runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Leyton Orient won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Leyton Orient specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
1
Leyton Orient
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Leyton Orient?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Leyton Orient have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Leyton Orient last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Leyton Orient 2-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Leyton Orient?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, Leyton Orient 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Burton Albion and 64% for Leyton Orient. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games; Leyton Orient in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Leyton Orient away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Leyton Orient?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 58% of Leyton Orient's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Leyton Orient usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Burton Albion's matches and 64% of Leyton Orient's.
Do Burton Albion and Leyton Orient tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Leyton Orient in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leyton Orient run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient beat Burton Albion 0-4 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.46 xG and Leyton Orient 1.30 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Leyton Orient outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 1.09 against Leyton Orient attack 1.11 / defence 1.42, drawn from 62/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 41% | Draw 25% | Leyton Orient 34%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Leyton Orient win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Leyton Orient 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Leyton Orient's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.