Burton Albion 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Derby travel to Pirelli Stadium to take on Burton Albion. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Pirelli Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Derby — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Derby's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Burton Albion trading profile (65 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby trading profile (65 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 55% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Derby 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.96 xG and Derby 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.955 / defence 1.244 | Derby attack 0.856 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.201. Derby's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Burton Albion games / 19 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 28% | Draw 29% | Derby 44%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Derby 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derby as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 40% | Derby 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 28% | Draw 29% | Derby 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Burton Albion 0.96 / Derby 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.955 / def 1.244 | Derby attack 0.856 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Derby (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Derby xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Derby kick off?
Burton Albion vs Derby kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 10 December 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Derby?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Burton Albion vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Derby part of?
Burton Albion vs Derby is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 28% chance of winning, Derby a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Burton Albion and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Derby in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Derby (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.95) and Derby's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
28%
3.62
29%
3.49
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.24
1.28
Derby xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
17%
5.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.28 for Derby, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 16W 17D 32L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 22W 19D 24L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.00 PPG, Derby on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.36 PPG from 33 outings (12W 9D 12L).
On the road, Derby have gone 6W 10D 17L from 33 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burton Albion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Burton Albion are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.05 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 65 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Derby in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 16W 17D 32L in their last 65 games (1.00 PPG), while Derby have gone 22W 19D 24L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Derby away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.36 PPG; Derby away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Derby in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Burton Albion and Derby runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Derby won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Derby specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Burton Albion
1
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Derby?
From 4 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 0, Derby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2024, when Derby 3-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Derby see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 52%, Derby 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Burton Albion) and 30% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 30%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 33% of games; Derby in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 36% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Burton Albion's recent games and 30% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Derby tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Derby in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Derby finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.96 xG and Derby 1.28 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Derby attack 0.86 / defence 0.79, drawn from 66/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 28% | Draw 29% | Derby 44%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Derby 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.00 PPG, Derby 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.