Burton Albion 0-1 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Charlton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burton Albion welcome Charlton to Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 11). Kick-off is Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burton Albion stand at 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Burton Albion have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Charlton have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Charlton's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Charlton's 0.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Burton Albion have won 1, Charlton 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Burton Albion 2–0 Charlton — a Burton Albion win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Charlton 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 51% | Charlton 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Charlton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 53% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.22 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.816 / defence 1.303 | Charlton attack 0.911 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.117. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.303 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 61 games and Charlton's last 61.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.94 | Draw 3.75 | Charlton 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Charlton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Charlton | Competition: League One, matchday 11 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 November 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Burton Albion 1.22 / Charlton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.816 / def 1.303 | Charlton attack 0.911 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Charlton (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Charlton xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Charlton FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Charlton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Charlton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 26 November 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Burton Albion 0 - 1 Charlton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Charlton part of?
Burton Albion vs Charlton is a League One fixture (matchday 11) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 34% chance of winning, Charlton a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Burton Albion and Charlton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.82x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 61 games and Charlton's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
34%
2.94
27%
3.75
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.54
1.33
Charlton xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
9%
11.08
12%
8.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Charlton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.33 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion come into this having played 61 games, going 13W 15D 33L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.18 PPG from 61 outings (16W 24D 21L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 0.89 PPG, Charlton on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burton Albion's home form reads 8W 6D 17L across their last 31 home games, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 31 away games (5W 13D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.31 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton in 67%.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton
Blended
Burton Albion (Home) vs Charlton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Burton Albion vs Charlton Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 13W 15D 33L in their last 61 games (0.89 PPG), while Charlton have gone 16W 24D 21L in their last 61 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Charlton away?
Burton Albion's home record (0.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.97 PPG; Charlton away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Charlton have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Charlton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Charlton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 May 2025: Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 54% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Charlton 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Burton Albion) and 39% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 39% of games; Charlton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Charlton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Charlton matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Burton Albion's games and 64% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Burton Albion and Charlton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Burton Albion's recent games and 39% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Charlton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 64% of Charlton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Burton Albion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Burton Albion 0-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.22 xG and Charlton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Burton Albion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Charlton attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 34% | Draw 27% | Charlton 39%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 51%, Charlton 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Charlton's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 0.89 PPG, Charlton 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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